On August 6, 2023, an earthquake with MS5.5 occurred in Pingyuan County, Dezhou City, Shandong Province, which is the largest earthquake in the Shandong region in the past 40 years. Before the earthquake, Shandong Earthquake Agency conducted biannual mobile gravity measurements near the epicenter, observed the spatiotemporal gravity field changes for the four years leading up to the earthquake, and made a certain degree of medium-term prediction, predicting that the epicenter location(36.00°N, 116.10°E)would be about 130km from the actual epicenter. This suggests that it is potentially feasible to carry out medium-term prediction of moderate earthquakes based on the temporal and spatial variations of the gravity field in the tectonically weak North China. Therefore, the study of the gravity changes before the 2023 Pingyuan MS5.5 earthquake can help to deepen the understanding of the relationship between the time-space variations of the gravity field and the moderate earthquakes, enrich the database of “magnitude and gravity anomalies” in North China, and improve the science and accuracy of identifying and determining the medium- and long-term anomalies of earthquakes.
The mobile gravity data utilized in this paper were processed and calculated using the classical adjustment method in LGADJ software. This process involved corrections for earth tide, instrument height, monomial coefficient, air pressure, and zero drift, resulting in absolute gravity values for each measurement point. Eight absolute gravity points, including Jiaxiang, Tai'an, and Zibo, served as the starting reference points. The average accuracy of the observed data point values during each period ranged from 8.5 to 16.0μGal, indicating relatively high precision. Subsequently, the calculation results of the two data sets were subtracted to obtain the relative gravity change. This change was then interpolated on a continuous grid using the Surface module of GMT mapping software and subjected to 50-km low-pass filtering. Finally, the dynamic evolution image of the gravity field was generated.
Based on these results, this study analyzes the characteristics of regional gravity field changes since September 2019. These findings are integrated with information on deformation fields, seismic source mechanisms, and dynamic environments to explore the relationship between gravity changes before the earthquake and the seismic mechanism. The results indicate the following:
(1)Since May 2022, precursory anomalies have been detected in the gravity field changes around the epicenter. Between May 2022 and April 2023, there was a significant increase in positive gravity changes exceeding +50μGal and a spatial extent exceeding 160km in the south of the epicenter, with positive-negative differences exceeding 70μGal on both sides of the epicenter. However, the gravity changes near the epicentre remained stable and in a “locked” state. The magnitude, range, and duration of gravity changes before the earthquakes align with previously summarized indicators.
(2)Between September 2021 and September 2022, distinct four-quadrant distribution characteristics emerged in the regional gravity field changes. And the spatial distribution of regional gravity field changes corresponds to horizontal deformation fields, seismic source mechanisms, and coseismic displacement fields. Precisely, the compression zones of the seismic source mechanism and the inflow and subsidence areas of the coseismic displacement field correspond to regions of surface compression and gravity decrease before the earthquake. Similarly, the expansion zones of the seismic source mechanism and the outflow and uplift areas of the coseismic displacement field correspond to of surface expansion and gravity increase before the earthquake.
(3)The leading cause of the gravity changes anomaly before the Pingyuan MS5.5 earthquake was the migration of deep-seated fluid materials, with the gravity effects generated by upper crustal deformation being a secondary factor. It is believed that the subduction of the Pacific Plate caused high-speed eastward migration of the relatively weak lower crust flow, dragging the upper crust eastward. The more rigid upper crust accumulated stress and strain during this process, developing numerous micro-fractures, while tectonic heterogeneity led to an east-west compression and north-south extension pattern. The fluid migration from compressed to expanded areas caused positive and negative differential changes in the gravitational field around the epicenter, culminating in the earthquake.