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    29 September 2011, Volume 33 Issue 3
    Brief Report
    FIELD GEOLOGICAL EXPLORATION OF ASHIKULE VOLCANO GROUP IN WESTERN KUNLUN MOUNTAINS
    XU Jian-dong, ZHAO Bo, ZHANG Liu-yi, CHEN Zheng-quan
    2011, 33(3):  499-505.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.001
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    From May 4 to May 30,2011,a field exploration on Ashikule Basin in Western Kunlun mountain area was conducted by the research team from Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration and Xinjiang Earthquake Administration.This work is financially supported by the special fund for China earthquake research project "The comprehensive scientific exploration of Yutian MS 7.3 earthquake in 2008 and Ashikule volcano group".Through detailed field survey on geological and geomopholoical features of Ashikule volcano group,which is one of the volcanic plateaus at the highest altitude(about 5,000m)in the world,we found out the total number of volcanoes,the eruption type and structural parameters,and the active history of the volcano group.Our studies have provided field evidences for resolving the controversies existing in the past,such as the authenticity of the news report about the eruption event on May 27,1951,the eruption pattern of Daheishan volcano,and the reality of Gaotaishan volcano and etc.

    NEW EVIDENCE FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE RUPTURE ZONE OF THE 1976 MS 7.8 TANGSHAN EARTHQUAKE
    GUO Hui, JIANG Wa-li, XIE Xin-sheng
    2011, 33(3):  506-524.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.002
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    After the occurrence of the 1976 MS7.8 Tangshan earthquake,some data reported that the surface rupture zone was 8 to 11km long to the south of Tangshan city.The rupture zone was composed by more than ten NE-trending right-lateral strike-slip left-stepping en echelon ruptures,with a general strike of N30°E and a maximum displacement of 1.5~2.3m and a vertical displacement of 0.2~0.7m in most sections.Recently other scholars proposed the surface ruptures appeared in a larger area.An effective way for identifying the tectonic property of the surface ruptures is to use geological method to reveal the distribution and displacement of the strata on the two sides of the surface ruptures.Based on the previous studies and field survey data,we carried out composite borehole profile studies at three sites and trenching at one site across the surface rupture zone of the Tangshan earthquake in a range of 31km to the south of Tangshan city.The three borehole profiles are 4km and 27.5km apart from one another.The total number of boreholes in the three profiles is 28,and the total drilling footage is 1217m.The ages of 51 samples from three borehole profiles have been measured,including seven 14C samples.The drilling investigations on the 3 profiles revealed offset phenomena at the depths of 20~60m beneath the ground surface.The strata consist of sediments of alluvial-proluvial plain,dominated by clay and silty sand,and of littoral plain,dominated by muddy clay and silt.Those offset phenomena show that the displacement amount of stratum increased as multiples of a single displacement with increasing depth.The trenching data verified the fault which was revealed by the drillings.Based on the above,we proved that the surface rupture zone of the 1976 earthquake extends to Xihe in Fengnan County and its total length reaches more than 47km.The 1976 Tangshan earthquake is the newest activity of the Tangshan Fault that had multi-stage activities in the Late Quaternary.The displacement feature of the surface rupture zone is that the north branch is mainly of right-lateral strike-slip motion,and the vertical displacement of the surface is up on the west and down on the east,on the other hand,the vertical displacement on the south branch is up on the east and down on the west,accompanied by some right-lateral slip.Such a faulting style cannot be explained by the movement of a single reverse or normal fault,but is consistent with the vertical displacement field induced by the right-lateral strike-slip of the fault belt.The distribution and rupture style of the newly found surface rupture zone are consistent with the vertical and horizontal displacement field of the Tangshan earthquake.In addition,in the light of the geological structure sections of this area,we discussed the relationship between seismogenic structure of Tangshan earthquake and geological structure,and proposed the suggestions about the next work.

    INTER-SEISMIC DEFORMATION FIELD OF THE GANZI-YUSHU FAULT BEFORE THE 2010 YUSHU EARTHQAUKE
    WANG Yan-zhao, WANG Min, SHEN Zheng-kang, GE Wei-peng, WANG Kang, WANG Fan, SUN Jian-bao
    2011, 33(3):  525-532.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.003
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    The 14 April 2010 MW 6.9 Yushu earthquake ruptured the northwestern segment of the Ganzi-Yushu Fault in Qinghai,China.Accurate estimation of the secular slip rate across the fault would help understand tectonic structure of the fault and its seismogenic process.GPS data obtained from 1999 to 2007around the Ganzi-Yushu Fault spanning 89°~103°E,28°~39°N make such estimation possible.After removing GPS stations whose displacements were affected by fault locking effects and/or deformation of other faults,we decompose the remaining GPS station velocities into strike-parallel and strike-normal components and examine the data along profiles across corresponding fault segments.The slip rates of the Fenghuoshan,Ganzi-Yushu,and northwestern segment of the Xianshuihe Faults are estimated as 6.1±1.9,6.6±1.5,and 10.2±0.7mm/a,respectively.These results agree with geological estimates of the fault slip rates,which show progressive increase from northwest to southeast across segments of the Ganzi-Yushu-Xianshuihe Fault zone,implying variation in transferring and absorbing patterns of deformation in different regions in and around the Tibetan plateau.Estimation of present-day slip rates along segments of the Ganzi-Yushu Fault would provide valuable data for future research on seismo-tectonics of the fault and tectonic evolution of the Tibetan plateau.

    DAMAGE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MS 7.1 YUSHU, QINGHAI EARTHQUAKE
    QI Wen-hua, SUI Gui-wu, WEI Ben-yong, DA Jie, Gasonglada, Caidanzhuoma
    2011, 33(3):  533-548.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.004
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    On April 14th,2010,a strong earthquake of MS 7.1 hit the Yushu County in Qinghai Province,which brought about a large number of casualties and economic losses.Based on the three times of investigation to the quake-hit area,and the analysis of natural environment,humanities and social economical conditions,the general characteristics of the earthquake hazard are summarized from the point of view of origin of earthquake disaster,emergency rescue and reconstruction. There are the following factors that make the disaster serious and the rescue operation and reconstruction more difficult,such as,the overlapping of epicenter with residential quarters and the fault-controlled damage distribution. Consequently, the damage is serious and the quake-hit area is large,and the severely affected areas are concentrated; The environment in Yushu is harsh,high in attitude,cold and oxygen deficient,thus the relief was difficult; The low anti-seismic ability of buildings there makes the destruction more serious; The lifeline infrastructures are vulnerable and inadequate,and the damage to them caused large associated damage; The buildings and population in urban area are dense,which partly led to the lack of shelters; People commonly have a poor education and can't speak Chinese,thus difficult to communicate.In addition,there is lack of knowledge of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction,thus affecting the efficiency of disaster relief.The factors that are beneficial to earthquake disaster reduction,emergency rescue and reconstruction are: Tents can easily be acquired owing to the living habit of the nomadic peoples,so people there can accommodate themselves to the particular circumstances; The Yushu area has a strong religious atmosphere,and the local monks and temples have played an important role in the earthquake relief work.Finally,this paper comes up with some experience and revelations about the earthquake disaster reduction in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau preliminarily.

    LONG-AND MID-TERM ANOMALOUS VARIATIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR BEFORE STRONG EARTHQUAKE
    CHEN Mei-hua, DENG Zhi-hui, MA Xiao-jing, TAO Jing-ling, WANG Yu
    2011, 33(3):  549-559.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.005
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    The spatial-temporal variations of atmospheric water vapor in western Sichuan Province and its vicinity during the mid-and long-term earthquake preparation process are studied.The MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008,the Songpan-Pingwu earthquake sequence in 1976 and the Yushu MS 7.1 earthquake in 2010 are selected as cases of the study regions.The result shows the frequency of atmospheric water vapor anomalies will decrease at first, then increase quickly during the mid-and long-term process of strong earthquake.The decreasing of the frequency of atmospheric water vapor anomalies begins relatively early,mostly over 10 years before earthquake and will last more than 9 years,which is considered as mid-and long-term precursor.The rapid increase appears 4 years before earthquake,as a kind of mid-and short-term precursor.The frequency of atmospheric water vapor anomalies over epicentral region of Wenchuan earthquake began to decline slowly 18 years before the earthquake and continued for 15 years, then increased rapidly 2 years before the earthquake.The atmospheric water vapor anomalies in the epicenter area changed from lowest frequency to high frequency 1 year before the earthquake,then the event occurred.It continued to increase until 2009 then resumed to normal state.14 years before Songpan-Pingwu earthquake,the frequency of atmospheric water vapor anomalies over the epicenter region began declining and it continued for 9 years,and then increased 4 years before the event.The anomalies in the epicenter region changed from lowest frequency in 1971 to high frequency in 1973,and reached the highest in 1976,and then the main shock happened.After the earthquake,it resumed to normal state.Similarly to the above two cases,there had been atmospheric water vapor anomalies before the MS 7.1 Yushu earthquake in 2010,the frequency of anomalies declined from 1997 to 2008 when the lowest value was reached.It increased quickly in 2009 till the event occurred in 2010.The atmospheric water vapor anomalies over epicentral region may be due to the opening-closing movement of pores and fractures in the rock layer before the earthquake,resulting in the migration of underground fluid and underground heat energy,and then causing the change of the surface temperature and surface latent heat flux.During the mid-and long-term process of earthquake preparation,the rate of latent heat exchange decreases due to the reduction of the hot water vapor from underground caused by the closing of pore and fracture when the crustal rocks undergo compression deformation,so the frequency of atmospheric water vapor anomalies begins to decline.While during the mid-and short-term process of earthquake preparation,the accelerating of the crustal rocks deformation and the expanding of micro fractures will lead to increasing the hot water vapor from underground,accelerating the latent heat exchange,and quickly increasing the frequency of atmospheric water vapor anomalies.Analyses of the above three cases prove preliminarily that this assumption is reasonable.

    ACCURATE LOCATION OF THE 2007 MS 6.4 NING'ER, YUNNAN,EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE
    LU Xian, ZHOU Long-quan
    2011, 33(3):  560-567.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.006
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    Five mobile digital seismic stations were set up by Earthquake Administration of Yunnan near the epicenter of the main shock after the Ning'er M6.4 earthquake on June 3,2007.In this paper,the aftershock sequence of the Ning'er M6.4 earthquake is relocated by using the double difference earthquake location method.The data are from the 5mobile digital seismic stations and the permanent Simao seismic station.The result shows that the length of aftershock sequence is 40km and the width is 30km,concentrated obviously at the lateral displacement area between the Pu'er fault and the NNE-trending faults,with the majority occurring on the Pu'er fault around the main shock.The depths of aftershocks are from 2km to 12km,and the predominant distribution is in the depth of 8~10km.The mean depth is 7.9km.The seismic fault dips to the northwest revealed from the profile parallel to this aftershock sequence,which is identical to the dip of the secondary fault of the NE-trending Menglian-Mojiang Fault in the earthquake area.There are more earthquakes concentrated in the northwest segment than in the southeast segment,which is perhaps related to the underground medium and faults.The depth profile of the earthquake sequence shows that the relocated earthquakes are mainly located near the Pu'er fault and the seismic ruptures dip to the southwest,consistent with the dip of the west branch of the Pu'er fault.In all,the fault strike showed by earthquake relocations matches well with the strike in the focal mechanism solutions.The main shock is in the top of the aftershock sequence and the aftershocks are symmetrically distributed,which shows that the faulting was complete in both NE and SW directions.

    SEISMIC DISASTER ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION BASED ON HISTORICAL MATERIALS OF TWO STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN LINFEN REGION AND GIS TECHNOLOGY
    ZHAO Xiao-yun, LI Zi-hong, YAN Xiao-bing, BO Jian-jie, LI Hui-ling, GAO Yun-feng
    2011, 33(3):  568-576.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.007
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    Through studies on the historical data of the two historical strong earthquakes in Linfen region,the characteristics of earthquake disaster distribution are summarized,and the actual isoseismal are drawn.By comparison of theoretic isoseismal maps obtained from different attenuation relationship models,the most suitable model and its modification part for different magnitudes in this region are determined.Using the spatial analysis function of GIS techniques,the more visual system of earthquake disaster prediction and evaluation is realized.In addition,the loss situation of earthquake damage in Linfen region under the present economic society is predicted based on the reconstruction data of the two historical strong earthquakes.This work provides reliable basis for practical work of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in the future.

    EMPIRICAL RELATIONS BETWEEN EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE AND PARAMETERS OF STRIKE-SLIP SEISMOGENIC ACTIVE FAULTS ASSOCIATED WITH HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES IN WESTERN CHINA
    RAN Hong-liu
    2011, 33(3):  577-585.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.008
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    In this paper,the relevant faulting and rupture-scale parameters of 30 large earthquakes were systematically collected and compiled,including fault length,slip rate,magnitude and their uncertainties.Considering the uncertainties of these parameters,10000 Monte Carlo realizations were generated consistent with the ranges of data,and for each a standard least-squares technique was used to find the coefficients of regressions.A comparative analysis with previous empirical relationships of the same type suggests that the empirical relationships developed in this research,especially the inclusion of fault slip rate in such regressions,are suitable very well for estimates of the seismic hazard on mapped active strike-slip faults in western China.

    STUDY OF STATIC STRESS TRIGGERING MODEL THROUGH THE ACTIVITIES OF MAIN-AND AFTERSHOCKS IN XINJIANG
    JIANG Hui, DENG Zhi-hui, WANG Hai-tao, WANG Qiong, LU Xing
    2011, 33(3):  586-601.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.009
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    We select 15 earthquakes with MS≥6.0 in Xinjiang since 1970 as "source earthquakes",and aftershocks of MS≥4.0 as target aftershocks.Test analysis has been done on the static stress triggering model.The results show that the static stress triggering model is not so applicable in the Xinjiang region.For 80%of source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is less than that in negative area; for 33%of source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is far less than that in negative area(the former is less than half of the latter); only for 13.3%of the source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is far more than that in negative area(the former is twice of the latter).Even the uncertainties are considered,e.g.the focal depth of the source earthquakes,the fault plane orientation and the slip angle,the results are basically the same.In most shock events,target earthquakes in negative ΔCFS area are more in number than that occurred in the positive area,which does not accord with static stress triggering model.The further inference is that the short-term earthquake prediction based on stress and strain increment changes is limited.

    ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF LUHUATAI BURIED FAULT SINCE LATE QUATERNARY REVEALED BY DRILLING
    LEI Qi-yun, CHAI Chi-zhang, DU Peng, WANG Yin, MENG Guang-kui
    2011, 33(3):  602-614.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.010
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    Luhuatai Fault is one of the important buried tectonics in Yinchuan Basin.Based on the results of shallow seismic exploration,we conducted composite drilling section exploration and dating of the samples of borehole.Some useful data of the fault were obtained,such as the depth of upper breaking point,the latest activity age,displacement in late Quaternary,and slip rates,etc.This study shows that the activity is different between the north and south segment along Luhuatai Fault.The north segment is a Holocene fault,while the south segment is a late mid-Pleistocene fault. From north to south along the north segment of Luhuatai Fault,the activity has enhanced,and the faulting is stronger in late Pleistocene than Holocene.

    THE RESULTS OF FINE MEASUREMENT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN WELLS OF JINSHAJIANG GROUNDWATER OBSERVATION NETWORK AND ITS ANALYSIS
    CHE Yong-tai, HE An-hua, YU Jin-zi, LIU Cheng-long, LI Wan-ming
    2011, 33(3):  615-626.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.011
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    The temperature and its gradient is measured carefully in 6 wells of Jinshajiang groundwater observation network.The result shows that the influence depth of sun-radiation heat is 50~125m.The average water temperature gradient is different in deferent wells,the minimum value is 0.11℃/hm,the maximum is 2.81℃/hm,and the general is 1~2℃/hm.The temperature gradient diversity in deferent depth sections in one well is very obvious,with values being in decimal fraction of ℃/hm,and the larger ones being 4~5℃/hm.Lithology of stratum and completeness of rockmass,particularly the high-angle fault crush zone,play a major role in affecting the influence depth of sun-radiation heat and temperature gradient of each well.The micro-behavior characteristics of water temperature in well,e.g.co-seismic effect,tide effect and anomalies before an earthquake etc,depend largely on the temperature gradient of the depth section where the temperature sensor is fixed.

    JINSHAJIANG GROUNDWATER OBSEVATION NETWORK AND DISCUSSION ABOUT ITS MONITOLING CAPABILITY OF EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR
    LI Wan-ming, CHE Yong-tai, LIU Cheng-long, YU Jin-zi, HE An-hua
    2011, 33(3):  627-643.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.012
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    The groundwater monitoring network in the reservoir area of cascade hydroelectric stations in the lower reaches of Jinshajiang(abbreviation: Jinshajiang groundwater observation network)is the second groundwater observation network in China constructed by enterprise exclusively for earthquake precursor monitoring and study in reservoir areas.In this paper,distribution of the observation network,observational technologic system,basic characteristics of observation well and aquifer,and basic result of trial observation are presented,and the monitoring capability of earthquake precursor are discussed with respect to the conditions of observation well and aquifer and characteristics of multi-monthly,monthly,daily behaviors of water level and temperature in well.

    TWO ABNORMALITIES IN FLUID PRECURSOR OBSERVATION IN BEIJING WULIYING WELL AND RELATED DISCUSSION
    GAO Ling, XING Cheng-qi
    2011, 33(3):  644-652.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.013
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    The precursor response characteristics of digital fluid caused by Wenchuan M 8.0 and Yushu M 7.1 earthquakes are studied,and the response difference of the observations of Wuliying Well to the two strong earthquakes is compared.The result shows that the abnormal fluid response has a certain relationship with earthquake size and epicenter distance.The greater the earthquake, and the closer to the epicenter from the observatory,the more sensitive the response will be to fluid anomalies.Abnormal Helium release was the first to be observed before both strong earthquakes in the fluid precursor observation.The release intensity is related to earthquake magnitude,the larger the magnitude of earthquake,the stronger the abnormal change.The large change in He release in a short period after the Wenchuan earthquake may be related to continuous activity of strong aftershocks and the structural adjustment after the earthquake.Helium release increased significantly after both earthquakes,as contributed by the abnormal deep-sited Helium release.However,this process may be connected with the annual change from July to September on the one hand,and related to the hot-reservoir type gas release in Wuliying well on the other hand.In the earthquake preparation process,a large number of deep-derived Helium is released into the geothermal system and the entire composition is changed.Temporally,this gas release appears later than fault-type gas release,and the vanishing time of this anomaly is also much later.The response difference of fluid precursor to the two strong earthquakes may be related to differences of deep structural setting and dynamic mechanism.It also shows there is stronger correlation to the Wenchuan M 8.0 earthquake in South-North earthquake belt and North-China region than to the Yushu M 7.1 earthquake in internal Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Helium gas can be a sensitive indicator for monitoring abnormal deep-gas activity of the region where the observation station locates.Hence,observation and research should be strengthened in the future.

    TECHNOLOGICAL RECONSTRUCTION AND OBSERVATION EFFECT OF HIGH TEMPERATURE WATER WELL UNDER A CONDITION OF DRYING UP
    ZHANG Chang-hui, LI Hai-xiao, ZHANG Yan-qing, SONG Xiao-bing
    2011, 33(3):  653-659.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.014
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    Through the shaft reconstruction of the well under the condition of artifical automatic flow,we managed to keep the continuous measurement of concentration of chemical contents and water level by adopting shaft observation method.After observation for more than a year,it has been revealed that the crisis of halt of measurement of the well was removed.Moreover, it provides a new approach for technological reconstruction of high temperature artesian well.

    PRELIMINARY STUDY ON APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL SIMULATION METHODS TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH(Ⅰ)
    DENG Zhi-hui, SONG Jian, SUN Jun-xiu, TAO Jing-ling, HU Meng-qian, MA Xiao-jing, JIANG Hui, LI Hong
    2011, 33(3):  660-669.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.015
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    Earthquake preparation and occurrence is a complex physical process.Although the earthquake abnormalities are varied,the strain energy accumulation is requisite before an earthquake.Earthquake prediction analysis must consider the strain energy accumulation process.As hard to go into the Earth's interior,direct measurement of stress and strain in deep focus is very difficulty.The use of numerical analysis,which constructs three-dimensional dynamic models of the crust and upper mantle to simulate the rock deformation process,is currently one of the most effective methods to study the crustal energy transfer and accumulation.The simulation result of current crustal deformation is consistent with the existing GPS data around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and its surrounding areas,in that the crustal horizontal displacement field of the eastern Tibetan Plateau rotates clockwise around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis.Current effective stress concentration areas mainly distribute along the block boundary fault belts around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis,especially along the southeast section of Jiali Fault,Moto Fault,Apalong Fault,India-Myanmar subduction zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan border region.It should be noted the risk of future strong earthquakes in these areas.In the adjacent interconnected tectonic areas,the blocks and faults are interrelated and interacted each other.When an earthquake occurs in a region,the rapid displacement and deformation of rock will inevitably lead to displacement and deformation of the associated blocks and faults; strain energy will transfer from one region to others.The numerical simulation results of deformation process in the Capital area from 1989 to 1998 clearly show that the high strain energy concentration region shifted from Datong area where 1989 earthquake(MS 5.8)occurred to Zhangbei area where 1998 earthquake happened.It illustrates that the application of numerical simulation analysis method may help us predict the possible strain energy transfer process,thus,providing the reference target regions for earthquake monitoring.

    PRELIMINARY STUDY ON APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL SIMU-LATION METHODS TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH(Ⅱ)
    DENG Zhi-hui, HU Meng-qian, ZHOU Bin, LU Yuan-zhong, TAO Jing-ling, MA Xiao-jing, JIANG Hui, LI Hong
    2011, 33(3):  670-683.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.016
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    With the advances in simulation techniques and understanding of geodynamic processes,numerical simulation is likely to play an increasingly important role in the research of seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction.In this paper,on the basis of the paper "A preliminary study on the application of numerical simulation methods to earthquake prediction research(Ⅰ)",the possible application of uncoordinated deformation analysis,Coulomb stress changes and earthquake probability modeling to the study of earthquake prediction is further discussed.When rock deforms from the elastic into the yield stage,the system is in a critical unstable state,the rock movement may deviate from the normal track and become complicated.The study results show that,before Wenan earthquake(MS 5.1)on July 4,2006,GPS velocity was well consistent with the numerical simulation speed in most areas of North China,while there were some differences in some regions,especially in the northeast of the North China Plain block,where big inconsistency in movement characteristics occurred,resulting perhaps from the preparation of Wenan earthquake.Research on earthquakes triggered by Coulomb stress change is a focus problem now.Numerical simulation may play an important role in the analysis of Coulomb stress changes.By constructing three-dimensional dynamic model,the effect of various factors on the value and distribution of Coulomb stress change can be simulated,and more realistic results can be obtained.By numerical simulation of Coulomb stress changes to seismic activities beneath Sichuan Zipingpu reservoirs,it is found that with the increase of reservoir water storage time,the pore pressure diffusion in the effective additional stress field will be gradually expanded to the range of more than 10km underground.The regional effective additional stress field and seismic activities show different characteristics in several typical regions.The United States Southern California Earthquake Center has tried to study the earthquake probability as research objectives.It is worthy of referencing in China's earthquake research.Computer simulation of synthetic earthquake catalog is an effective way to solve the lack of data.The future direction of development should be a more realistic three-dimensional dynamic model,taking into account the multi-field coupling between heat,fluid and etc. ,improving hardware and software conditions and shortening the calculation time step,obtaining more complete information on fault movement,and simulating the fault activities.

    IDENTIFYING A TI MEDIUM WITH ARBITRARY ORIENTATION BY USING THE ANALYTIC EXPRESSION OF ITS ELASTIC TENSOR
    CHEN Wen-kang, YAO Chen, HAO Chong-tao
    2011, 33(3):  684-692.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.017
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    Transverse isotropy(TI)symmetry is widely applied to the study of seismic anisotropy.It can model almost all kinds of observed anisotropy,including stress-aligned cracks in the crust,a variety of sedimentary rocks and anisotropic minerals such as olivine in the uppermost mantle.TI anisotropy represents the main characteristics of different kinds of anisotropy media at various depths.TI media are not always horizontal(HTI)or vertical(VTI),but could be with an arbitrary orientation of symmetry axis.Cracks may be vertical or nearly vertical,but they could also be tilted; sedimentary rocks that underwent tectonic deformation may not retain vertical axis; the lattice preferred orientation of upper mantle olivine could also differ from horizontal.These ask for the breaking of usual hypothesis of VTI or HTI,and solving the problems concerning wave propagation and data interpretation through a TI medium with arbitrary orientation(ATI).In terms of elasticity matrix,the ATI medium is similar to the triclinic medium,both of which have 21 nonzero and distinct components.Given the elastic matrix of the medium,it’s important to determine the symmetric system it belongs to.Considering the prevalence of TI symmetry in the study of anisotropy,it’s especially important to decide whether the medium is an ATI one.Due to the rotational invariance of the TI medium about its axis,the 21 components of the ATI elastic coefficient matrix are not mutually independent at all.In fact,they can be expressed by five mutually independent elasticity constants measured in its innate symmetric coordinate system and the orientation of the symmetry axis.In light of the analytical expression for the ATI elastic tensor,it is possible to analyze the relations between the ATI elastic coefficients and find a way to identify ATI elastic matrix.

    THE EFFECT OF CRACK PARAMETERS ON ATTENUATION ANISOTROPY: NUMERICAL MODELING
    CAI Xiao-gang
    2011, 33(3):  693-705.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.018
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    Propagation through stress-aligned fluid-filled cracks and other inclusions has been claimed to be cause of azimuthal anisotropy observed in the crust and upper mantle.This paper has examined the behavior of seismic waves attenuation caused by the internal structure of rock mass,and in particular,the internal geometry of the distributions of fluid-filled openings.So a systematic research on crack parameters' effects,such as crack density,crack aspect ratio(the ratio of crack thickness to crack diameter),pore fluid properties(particularly pore fluid velocity),VP/VS ratio of the matrix material and seismic wave frequency on attenuation anisotropy has been conducted based on Hudson's crack theory.The result shows that the crack density,aspect ratio,material filler,seismic wave frequency and P-wave and shear wave velocity in the background of rock mass,especially the frequency, have great effects on attenuation curves.The numerical research can help us know the effects of crack parameters and it is a good supplement for laboratory modeling.However,attenuation is less well understood because of the great sensitivity of attenuation to the details of the internal geometry.Some small changes in the characteristics of pore fluid viscosity,pore fluids containing gas and liquid phases and pore fluids containing clay can each alter attenuation coefficients by orders of magnitude.So some parameters controlling attenuation are needed to make reasonable estimation,and anisotropic attenuation is worth studying further.

    THE SEISMIC DATA MODEL OPTIMIZATION METHOD AND PRELIMINARY APPLICATION
    DU Jun-hui, YAN Li-li, QU Chun-yan, LIU Zhi, SHAN Xin-jian
    2011, 33(3):  706-718.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.019
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    Because the seismic data is so various and is continuously increasing in number,sharing seismic data and providing data service is more difficult.This paper proposes a method to optimize the existing seismic data model based on the modeling tool of PowerDesigner.The method was initially applied to the exiting 1/4000000 active fault GIS database.Aimed at the actual problem of active fault GIS database,the method realizes the optimization of fault data model.And the optimized fault database was applied to specific example cases.Meanwhile,comparative analysis was done between the optimized PDM with the old one.The result shows that the optimized model is more flexible and convenient to use,the data description is more accurate,the relationship between data is clearer,and the data constraint is more standard and complete. It can meet the different needs of seismologists.The proposed optimization method for earthquake data model has a certain value of popularization and application,and it lays a good foundation for seismic data sharing and data service in the future.

    THE CALIBRATION OF ULTRALOW PERMEABILITY MEASUREMENT APPARATUS AND PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
    WU Man, YANG Xiao-song, CHEN Jian-ye
    2011, 33(3):  719-735.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.020
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    The low-ultralow permeability measurement is one of the most important research topics in fluid mechanics and rock physics.Quantification of fluid transport through fault zones is critical for the understanding of fault mechanics and prediction of subsurface fluid flow.In order to obtain the information about the fluid-flow processes in seismogenic regions,we have designed and constructed a distilled water/gas-medium permeability measurement apparatus capable of achieving ultralow permeability.The new measurement apparatus has used steady-state method and pore pressure oscillation method,which has become very popular recently because of its continuous measurement during processes that might alter the pore space of rocks and can measure samples with different permeability magnitude fast and precisely,thus producing a basic environment in which the confining pressure reaches 200MPa by water,pore pressure reaches 40MPa either by water or gas at room temperature.In this paper,we have introduced some calibrating parameters in pore pressure oscillation method and given the experimental results on typical sandstones under seasonal cycle conditions.Our experimental results have showed that: (1)permeability by pore pressure oscillation method decreases with cyclic numbers slightly while permeability by steady state method decreases markedly; (2)we have used empirical power law to fit the experimental values and the accuracy to pore pressure oscillation method is extremely high.We also have compared the results of the two different methods and found that pore pressure oscillation permeability is slightly larger than steady state permeability.Finally,we discussed the reasons that generate the discrepancy due to the method applied.Then we did some preliminary research on the pore pressure,and calculated effective pressure coefficent at intervals during the cycles.Large hysteresis in permeability has been observed,and effective pressure coefficient has been found to be loading path-dependent.At last,we used the least square method on all experimental data to get the optimal effective pressure coefficient to make the best correlation between the permeability and the effective pressure.