So far the potential earthquake magnitude in a tectonic region has scarcely been determined quantitatively. In this paper, we present a method to estimate quantitatively the potential earthquake magnitude. The linearly elastic, plane strain finite element method is used to analyse tectonic stress field. The total strain energy accumulated in the tectonic region and the fracturing area are also calculated. The potential earthquake magnitude is determined by the empirical formula which is related to the strain energy and fracturing area.