Abstract: Earthquakes are devastating natural disasters: no place on Earth experiences them to a greater extent than China and the East Asian seaboard. Similarly drought, floods and other climatic hazards are frequent events around the World. A theory is developed here to link these two geophysical phenomena.During the early 1980' s a deterministic analytical model of climate variation was developed. It matches proxy palaeoclimatic time series and can also be used for forecasting; it has been successfully tested for several years. Earlier substantiation of the model over geological timescales is here extended through recent history. An explanation of the cause of climate change is then suggested based on the possibility that the Universal Gravitational Constant (G) may vary with time. Variation of G implies simultaneous variation of both tectonic activity, such as earthquakes, and climatic properties; such as the global temperature represented by the model. The model therefore also holds promise for earthquake forecasting.A theory is proposed to explain the alternation of earthquake activity between different areas over a period of time. This is tested in hindcast for the many twentieth century earthquakes of Magnitude 6 or greater on the Richter scale in China. Within the limitations of the accuracy of small scale topographic mapping and suspected insensitivity of epicentre location, the results are most encouraging.

Key words: Universal gravitation constant, Earthquake, China

摘要： 地震是破坏性很大的自然灾害,世界上没有一个地方比中国和东亚沿海地区经历过更多的地震。同样的,干旱、洪水以及其它气候灾害也是世界上屡见不鲜的事件。本文提出了将这两种地球物理现象联系起来的理论。 早在80年代初期,便已提出气候变化的决定性的分析模式。该模式与古气候时间序列相符合,并可用于预报,它成功地经受过几年的检验。早先对该模式在地质时标上的核实,在这里我们将之延伸到近代历史。并且根据万有引力常数(G)随时间变化的可能性提出了关于气候变化原因的解释。G的变化意味着构造活动性(如地震)与气候特性(如由模式所表示的全球温度变化)的同步变化。因此,该模式也为地震预报提供了希望。 作者提出了解释在某一时间段内不同地区地震活动性的交替的理论。该理论通过对中国廿世纪发生的里克特震级大于或等于6的许多地震的检验。在小比例尺地形制图精度以及在震中定位的低灵敏度范围内,所获结果是令人鼓舞的。

关键词: 万有引力常数, 中国, 地震