Abstract: According to the multi-criterion principle for identifying potential hypocenter,it is suggested that the occurrence of strong earthquake should satisfy not only the quasi-static strength condition,but also those of sudden release of enough strain energy. All these conditions can be expressed by the sudden-stress-drop criterion,the total-energy criterion,and the strength criterion.A set of probabilistic expressions of these criteria and the method of estimating general seismogenic probability are established in this paper,and examined by the calculations of 28 earthquake cases in China.

Key words: Potential hypocenter region, Hypocenter parameter, Criterion of strong earthquake, Seismogenic probability

摘要： 根据确定潜在震源区的多判据原理,强震的发生不仅要满足准静态强度条件,而且必须具备突发释放足够能量的条件,而所有这些条件可以通过突发应力降判据、总能量判据和强度判据加以表达。本文建立了它们相应的概率表达式和估计发震总概率的方法,并针对我国28例地震进行了验算。

关键词: 潜在震源区, 震源参数, 强震判据, 发震概率