STUDY ON SEISMOGENIC PROBABILITIES OF POTENTIAL HYPOCENTER REGIONS IN THE CENTRAL QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU USING A TECTONOPHYSICAL METHOD

SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY ›› 1993, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (1): 1-20.

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STUDY ON SEISMOGENIC PROBABILITIES OF POTENTIAL HYPOCENTER REGIONS IN THE CENTRAL QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU USING A TECTONOPHYSICAL METHOD

Wang Shengzu

Institute of Geology, SSB, Beijing 100029

Received:1991-01-31 Revised:1992-11-30 Online:1993-03-10 Published:2009-11-25
Supported by:
Supported by the Joint Earthquake Science Foundation of China.grant 89047.

青藏高原中部地区潜在震源发震概率的构造物理方法研究

王绳祖

国家地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029

基金资助:
地震科学联合基金资助课题(89047)

Abstract

Abstract:

A deterministic-cum-probabilistic tectonophysical method is used to estimate the hypocentral parameters and seismogenic probabilities of the potential hypocenter regions before and after the Nov. 5. 1988 earthquake (M_s=7) west of Tuotuoheyan in terms of the tectonic feature, stratigraphic structure, geoth-ermal environment, and driving background in the central Qinghai-Tibet plateau. As a result, the earth-quake risk tendency of this area is discussed.

Key words: Qinghai- Tibet plateau, Potential hypocenter region, Seismogenic probability, Earthquake risk, Tectonophysical method

摘要：

针对青藏高原中部东经88～96°、北纬30～36°地区,采用确定论与概率论相结合的构造物理方法,根据该地区的构造特征、地层结构、地热环境和驱动背景,计算了各潜在震源区的震源参数和发震概率,对比分析了1988年11月5日沱沱河沿以西7级地震前、后发震概率的变化,并就该地区地震危险性趋势进行了讨论。考虑到两次强震之间较小地震所消耗的能量,文中还提出了"有效孕震时间"的概念,给出了推算方法。

关键词: 青藏高原, 潜在震源区, 发震概率, 地震危险性, 构造物理方法

Wang Shengzu. STUDY ON SEISMOGENIC PROBABILITIES OF POTENTIAL HYPOCENTER REGIONS IN THE CENTRAL QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU USING A TECTONOPHYSICAL METHOD[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 1993, 15(1): 1-20.

王绳祖. 青藏高原中部地区潜在震源发震概率的构造物理方法研究[J]. 地震地质, 1993, 15(1): 1-20.

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STUDY ON SEISMOGENIC PROBABILITIES OF POTENTIAL HYPOCENTER REGIONS IN THE CENTRAL QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU USING A TECTONOPHYSICAL METHOD

青藏高原中部地区潜在震源发震概率的构造物理方法研究

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