Abstract: Considering the influence of the last earthquake, in this paper we study two occurrence rates of earthquakes with various magnitudes in the northern part of North China and test them by renewal process and double Poisson model; then we obtain earthquake occurrence probability for each potential seismic source area in future 50 years by using probability assignment model.

Key words: Renewal process, Double Poisson model, Probability assignment model, Earthquake occurrence probability, North China

摘要： 采用双泊松模式更新过程研究华北的北部地区各级地震的两个发震速率,并对各速率进行检验,最后利用概率分配模式,求出各潜在震源区未来50a的发震概率。

关键词: 更新过程, 双泊松模型, 概率分配模式, 发震概率, 华北