Abstract: Since the prediction method for maximum magnitude of reservoir induced seismicity by using comprehensive effecting parameter E-value was proposed in 1987,it has been applied to many largescale reservoirs with good effects.After that,a group of reservoir induced earthquakes were confirmed in the past 20 years.The applicability of the model is worth studying.Based on collection of new cases of reservoir induced earthquakes,48 reservoir induced earthquake cases are selected in the paper. A new empirical prediction model of the maximum magnitude with E-value is statistically obtained and compared with the old one.At last,the upper limit of the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake is estimated to be less than M7.

Key words: reservoir induced earthquake, the maximum magnitude, magnitude prediction, pattern recognition, comprehensive effecting parameter

摘要： 水库地震最大震级综合影响参数E值预测法及其与最大地震的经验关系自1987年被提出后,在很多大型水库中得到了应用并取得了一定的效果。此后20多年又有一批水库地震被确认。该经验关系是否适用值得研究。文中在收集增补最新水库地震资料的基础上,选取48个水库地震震例资料,统计确定了新的水库地震最大震级与综合影响参数的经验模型,并与已有经验模型进行了比较,最后得出水库地震的最大震级上限≯7。

关键词: 水库地震, 最大震级, 震级预测, 模式识别, 综合影响参数