Abstract: We have made counting,calculating and analyzing to the entire combining environments (conditions) and its corresponding induced earthquake activity (results) of Hubei Qingjiang Geheyan reservoir area and its around region which is adjacent to the Yangtze Three Gorge reservoir and has accumulated water in 1993,and has seismological network. We propose a model of induced earthquake risk assessment in reservoir area and its around region. By using this model,the induced earthquake risk of Yangtze Three Gorge reservoir area and its around region is predicted and assessed.

Key words: Reservoir earthquake, Seismic risk evaluation, Byes probability, Yangtez Three Gorge reservoir

摘要： 对已蓄水并建有地震观测台网、毗邻长江三峡水库的湖北清江隔河岩水库及其周缘地区各不同位置的诱震总体组合环境(条件)及相应的诱发地震活动结果进行统计、计算和分析,建立了一种诱发地震危险性评定模型,据此模型对长江三峡水库及其周缘地区的水库诱发地震危险性进行了预测和评价。

关键词: 水库地震, 地震危险性评估, 贝叶斯概率, 长江三峡水库