Abstract: It is known that strong earthquakes are usually associated with regional active tectonics and certain geophysical anomalies reflecting the features of regional deep structures. In this paper, the Bayes formula in statistic is used to quantify the relationship between the earthquake and the factors of seismogenic environment. These factors include active fault, Quaternary basin, Bouguer anomaly and geomagnetic anomaly.

Key words: Seismic zonation, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Seismogenic environment

摘要： 以华南沿海地区为研究区,将Bayes公式应用于地震环境特征与地震事件的相关性定量化研究中,在GIS技术的支持下,由统计某一因素不同类型所占的面积及发生在其上的中强地震数,得到地震发生的后验概率。为评价地质及地球物理各因素与地震关系的相对重要性,引入了系统工程学中的层次分析方法,最终得到研究区内以累积概率为指标的地震综合危险图,据此将研究区划分为内带与外带

关键词: 地震区划, 层次分析, 地震环境