Abstract: Based on exploring and clarifying the conceptual implications,analytical hierarchies and the descriptive aspects of Regional Scale Macroscopic Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters(RSMVED),and taking Beijing,Tianjin and Tangshan area and its relevant situations in 2000 as example,an index system composed of 25 individual indexes for describing and assessing the RSMVED of the studied area has been set up first in this paper.Then,according to this index system and mainly with the help of Principal Component Analysis method,the spatial change characteristics and regularities of RSMVED of the studied area have been generalized preliminarily but quantitatively and comprehensively.The result shows that,in the researched area,there are 6 main vulnerability patterns controlling the spatial change behaviors of its RSMVED,and the regional differences in style,extent and driving force manifested by these patterns are quite different.Further analysis presents that it is the urban spots of each large and middle-sized cities like Beijing,Tianjin,Tangshan,Qinhuangdao and Chengde,etc that are the most vulnerable with their RSMVED level much higher than the average of the whole studied area.The areas whose RSMVED level is apparently lower than the area's average mainly concentrate in the suburb counties of both Beijing and Tianjin municipalities.Except for these urban spots and such suburb counties,the vulnerability status of other parts of the studied area nearly all fluctuates slightly around the area's average vulnerable level by some small amplitude.

Key words: regional scale macroscopic vulnerability to earthquake disasters(RSMVED), spatial change, vulnerability pattern, Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan area

摘要： 在讨论和明确地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性的含义、分析层次和描述角度的基础上,以京津唐地区和2000年为例,构建了一个由25个指标组成的描述该地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性的指标体系;基于该指标体系,以主成分分析作为定量分析方法中的主线,对该地区该类脆弱性空间变化的特点和规律进行了初步的定量概括和综合。结果表明:研究区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性的空间变化主要表现为6种脆弱性模式,各模式反映的脆弱性空间差异在形式、幅度和主要驱动因素上各异;北京、天津、唐山和秦皇岛等大中城市的市区是研究区脆弱性最大的部位,大大高于全区脆弱性的平均状况,而较全区脆弱性平均状况明显小的地区则集中在京、津两地诸郊县,研究区其他地区的脆弱性状况大体围绕全区平均水平小幅波动。

关键词: 地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性, 空间变化, 脆弱性模式, 京津唐地区