SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY ›› 2008, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 935-944.

• Earthquake source physics and model experiment • Previous Articles     Next Articles

THE COULOMB FAILURE STRESS CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MS 8.0 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE AND THE RISK PREDICTION OF ITS SURROUNDING FAULTS

ZHANG Guo-hong1, SHAN Xin-jian1, LI Wei-dong2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China;
    2. Spatial Informatics Institute, Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450001, China
  • Received:2008-10-08 Revised:2008-11-17 Online:2008-12-18 Published:2009-11-27

汶川MS 8.0地震库仑破裂应力变化及断层危险性初步研究

张国宏1, 单新建1, 李卫东2   

  1. 1. 中国地震局地质研究所, 地震动力学国家重点实验室, 北京, 100029;
    2. 河南工业大学空间信息研究所, 郑州, 450001
  • 作者简介:张国宏,男,1978年生,2003年毕业于云南大学地球物理系,现为中国地震局地质研究所博士研究生,主要从事地震应力触发、形变场数值模拟及其演化、动力学成因解释等研究,电话:010-62009095,E-mail:zhanggh.geophysics@gmail.com.
  • 基金资助:
    “十一五”国家科技支撑计划(2006BAC01B030103);国家自然科学基金(40574007);中国地震局汶川8.0级地震科学考察项目共同资助

Abstract: Using the focal mechanisms and slip distribution model of the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,we inverted the co-seismic Coulomb failure stress change.The inverted Coulomb stress change based on Chen J's slip distribution model shows that about 83%of its aftershocks lie in regions where the Coulomb stress increased by 0.01MPa,given the receiver fault' strike/dip/rake as 204?/56?/98? respectively.In contrast,the distribution of aftershocks is sparse in areas where the inverted Coulomb stress change is decreased by 0.01MPa.From this we can tell that aftershocks are abundant where the Coulomb stress change rose by more than 0.01MPa,and aftershocks are sparse where the Coulomb stress dropped by a similar amount.This study and the forerunner,Ma et al(2005),demonstrate that even when the source geometry and slip distribution are complex,Coulomb stress change is correlated with the distribution of aftershocks.And its main characteristic is that for most of the region in the northern wall of the fault the Coulomb stress dropped by 0.01MPa and for most of the region in the southern wall of the fault,it increased by 0.01MPa.The tendency of change of the Coulomb stress field is progressed to the direction of N-E and S-W.At last,we calculated the Coulomb stress change on most of the existing faults based on Deng's active fault data.The results show that the Coulomb stress change on several strike-slip faults is decreased by about 0.01MPa,including Maerkang Fault,southeast Chengdu thrust fault,Huya Fault,Min Jiang Fault,west Qinling north-edge fault and Qinling north-edge fault.This means these faults may be less dangerous in future earthquakes.There are several strike-slip faults on which the Coulomb stress change are increased by about 0.01MPa,including eastern Kunlun Fault,northern part of Chengdu thrust fault,Wenxian Fault,and western part of west Qinling north-edge fault.These results are consistent with that of Tom Parsons et al.What brings contradiction is that when comes to Xianshuihe Fault,our results show an increase by about 0.01MPa in the middle part of Xianshuihe Fault,at longitude 101.2皌o 102癊 and latitude 30皌o 31.04癗.The Coulomb stress change in most part of Xianshuihe Fault is decreased,which means the Xianshuihe Fault system has a potential seismic risk lower that it had before the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.

Key words: slip distribution, the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Coulomb failure stress change, fault interaction

摘要: 利用四川省汶川MS 8.0地震的震源机制解及滑动分布模型,反演了由汶川地震造成的同震库仑破裂应力变化;从余震效应与断层相互作用的角度对库仑破裂应力变化进行了分析。结果显示:基于滑动分布模型反演的库仑破裂应力变化能较好地反映与余震分布的对应关系,以最大余震断层面参数(走向/倾角/滑动角:204°/56°/98°)为接收断层,反演结果最佳,83%M>4的余震均发生于库仑应力增加约0.01MPa的区域;库仑破裂应力变化的主要特征为断层北盘大部分区域为库仑破裂应力下降区,断层南盘主要为增加区,断层两端均显示库仑破裂应力变化增加,且分别沿NE和SW两个方向发展。最后,基于活断层分布模型,计算由此次地震造成的已存断层面上的库仑破裂应力变化,结果显示多条左旋走滑断裂库仑破裂应力变化值增加。

关键词: 滑动分布, 汶川MS 8.0地震, 库仑破裂应力变化, 断层相互作用

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