Abstract: Xiong'an New Area is established on April 1, 2017 and some non-capital functions from Beijing would be transferred to this new area. As a political, economic, and cultural center of China, Beijing has a highly dense population, buildings, and transportation. With the rapid development of the urban economy, the population and assets exposed to dangerous areas with M ≥ 7 earthquakes have accumulated in an exponential manner, leading to a continuous surge in seismic risk in Beijing. Studying on the correlativity of seismic hazard between Beijing area and Xiong'an New Area is of great significance to judge whether Xiong'an can play a role in the dispersal of seismic risk of Beijing. Using Monte Carlo method to simulate synthetic earthquake sequences, and for each simulated earthquake, the peak ground acceleration data sets on each site of Beijing and Xiong'an can be calculated through the attenuation relationship. Based on the statistical analysis of the ground motion peak acceleration data sets, this paper holds that the correlativity of the ground motion between Beijing area and Xiong'an New Area is not high; the probability of Beijing and Xiong'an suffering at the same time from an exceeded fortification level of ground motion effect is very low; the probability of Beijing and Xiong'an suffering at the same time from a rare ground motion effect is extremely low. Through defibering population, assets, and setting up a remote backup of earthquake emergency equipment and supplies, Xiong'an New Area can disperse the high seismic risk of Beijing to some extent.

Key words: peak ground acceleration, correlation coefficient, annual exceedance probability

摘要： 2017年4月1日成立的雄安新区未来将集中疏解北京非首都功能。北京市作为中国的政治、经济和文化中心，拥有高度密集的人口、建筑和交通网络，而快速发展的城市经济，使得暴露在具备发生7级以上大地震危险区域的人口、资产呈指数级增长，导致北京地区地震风险持续飙升。研究雄安新区与北京地区地震动影响的相关性，对研判雄安新区能否同时对北京起到地震风险分散作用具有十分重要的意义。文中基于蒙特卡罗方法合成地震序列，利用衰减关系得到北京—雄安各场点地震动峰值加速度数据集。通过对地震动参数数据集的统计分析，可以得出北京地区与雄安新区地震动影响相关性不高；北京、雄安同时遭受超设防水准地震动影响的概率很低；北京、雄安同时遭受罕遇地震动影响的概率极低。通过人口和资产的疏解、地震应急装备及物资储备的异地备份，雄安新区可以在一定程度上分散首都地震的高风险。

关键词: 地震动峰值加速度, 相关系数, 年超越概率