TECHNOLOGY AND SEVERAL CASES FOR INTER-MEDIATE-AND LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF THE MAGNITUDE 6～7 EARTHQUAKE

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2013.03.003

Abstract

Abstract:

In general,the displacement produced by a magnitude 6～7 earthquake is relatively small,even does not reach the surface,so it is difficult to be preserved in geological records. On the other hand,the seismogenic fault of such earthquakes is easy to be considered incorrectly as a non-active fault since Holocene,consequently overlooking the real seismic hazard in the future. To solve this problem,we propose a type of faults that are capable of generating M6～7 earthquakes,but with weak surface activity and cannot produce conspicuous surface displacement. To recognize such faults from geological records,which have no visible evidence of activity since middle-late Pleistocene,is the key to intermediate-and long-term earthquake prediction. The specific procedures of the technology are as follows: First,we determine the seismotectonic setting of the tectonic system in which the target fault lies. Second,we establish the relation between the target fault and other active faults in the same tectonic system,which have records of historical earthquakes or paleoearthquakes. Then we compare varied seismogenic units in the same-order structure,same tectonic system,and varied stages in the same tectonic process. The case studies demonstrate that this is an effective method for intermediate-and long-term earthquake prediction. The cases studied include the Puduhe-Xishan Fault in Kunming City,Hanzhong Basin in the north section of the Longmen Shan Fault zone,Dachuan-Shuangshi Fault in the south section of the Longmen Shan Fault zone,and the Guguan-Guoshun Fault of the Longxian-Baoji Fault zone. These faults all show weak activities on the surface and have potential for earthquakes with estimated magnitude 6.5～7.0.In addition,by estimation using this method,the Taoyuan-Guichuan Fault of the Longxian-Baoji Fault zone has a seismic risk of M6.0～6.5 earthquake,and the Longxian-Qima-Mazhao Fault is capable of producing an earthquake about M7.5.

Key words: earthquake prediction, active fault, Wenchuan earthquake, Lushan earthquake

摘要：

6～7级地震地表位错量往往很小甚至不断错地表,其发震断裂很容易被误判为非全新世活动断裂而导致其未来强震危险性被忽视。对此,文中特提出未来可能发生6～7级地震的地表弱活动断裂类型。甄别地表弱活动断裂是6～7级地震中长期预测技术的关键,技术要点是: 在目标断裂所属构造系统的发震能力判定基础上,构建起目标断裂与同一构造背景中具历史地震记载或古地震地质记录的活动断裂之间的某种联系。实际案例解析结果表明,同一级次相似构造、同一构造系统不同孕震构造单元,以及特定构造过程中不同阶段构造级次的类比,是地表弱活动断裂6～7级地震中长期预测较为有效的技术方法。昆明市普渡河-西山断裂、龙门山断裂带北段汉中盆地活动构造系和南段大川-双石断裂为地表弱活动断裂,潜在震级6.5～7.0,陇县-宝鸡断裂带的桃园-龟川寺、固关-虢镇以及陇县-岐山-马召断裂潜在震级依次为6.0～6.5、6.5～7.0、7.5级左右。

关键词: 地震预测, 活动断裂, 汶川地震, 芦山地震

CLC Number:

P315.2

CHEN Li-chun, RAN Yong-kang, WANG Hu, LI Yan-bao, MA Xing-quan. TECHNOLOGY AND SEVERAL CASES FOR INTER-MEDIATE-AND LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF THE MAGNITUDE 6～7 EARTHQUAKE[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2013, 35(3): 480-489.

陈立春, 冉勇康, 王虎, 李彦宝, 马兴全. 地表弱活动断裂6～7级地震中长期预测技术要点与案例解析[J]. 地震地质, 2013, 35(3): 480-489.

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