Abstract: The relative movement between two plates causes the shear stress accumulation on the locked area of the fault zone. The stress rate depending on the relative velocity and the depth of the locked area can be obtained by use of elastic finite element model.In addition,the low viscosity material of both the asthenosphere and the deep part would led to the relaxation of the shear stress near the fault and increase of it at the tip of the fault. The time-dependent stress distribution following a strike-slip earthquake can be computed using 3-D linear viscoelastic finite elament analysis.Combination of these two types of stress gives the whole process of stress accumulation and stress release along the simple fault zone.The result in applying this technique to the North Anotolian fault indicates that the gap at the west part of the fault has the highest shear stress,which has reached the critical stress level. It will have major shocks in a few years except for possible small shocks or aseismic creep. The computed stress curves varying with time at different parts indicate that the next seismically active period will begin around a period of 2000—2020.

摘要： 分别用三维有限元弹性及粘弹性模型计算板块间相对运动在转换断层闭锁带上的应力累积及软水圈和断层深部低粘度物质产生的大震后应力松弛,从而给出断层带上应力变化过程。 本文以土耳其北部北安纳托里亚断层带为模型。计算结果表明,西部“围空区”有最高剪切应力水平并已达到临界状态,今后几年若无小震或蠕变将会有较大地震;断层带的下一个活动期将从公元2000—2020年开始。