Abstract: Geological evidence indicates that the fault activity on the middle segment (Dali and its adjacent region) is the strongest along the Honghe fault (the Red River Fault).The active fault shows a distinct tendency of getting younger from the ends to the middle segment of the fault,i.e,faulting in the Dali area is the youngest,which coincides with the distribution of recent strong shocks.Geological evidence and its ages show that five events with a recurrence interval 昽f about 1500 years occurred in the middle-late Holocene time,presumably associated with an earthquake of M=8.

摘要： 地质证据表明,红河断裂带的活动强度以其中段的大理及其附近地区最强烈,整个断裂带自新生代以来的活动时序也从南、北两端逐渐向中段的大理地区变新,可与断裂带中段的现代强震分布相对应。地质现象及地质年龄证据表明全新世中、晚期在大理及其邻近地区有周期为1500年左右的五个从平静到活动的地质事件。用断裂位错距离和位错速率计算的地震复发周期表明,每隔1500年左右的地质事件可能伴随着一次8级地震。