Abstract: The lava flow hazard is an important and frequent disaster for residents in the volcanic area. In this paper, we focus on the lava flow inundation hazard zoning based on the example case of the Ashikule volcano in Xinjiang, China. Firstly, the parameters of magma such as density, viscosity and temperature are calculated by the empirical formula of magma utilizing results of previous field geological survey and petrology analysis. Then, using the kinematic thermo-rheological model, we simulated the inundation area of lava flow from Ashi volcano at the effusion rates of 200m³/s and 500m³/s. The simulation results of Ashi volcano well coincide to the geological map and verify that the method and parameters are valid. Then the applied simulations were carried out to calculate the lava flow inundation area in future eruption at Ashi, Wuluke and Daheishan crater with different effusion rates. At last, according to the analysis of the applied simulation results and drawing lessons from the foreign disaster zoning method, the four-level hazard zoning was built and set with different colors. The first level with red color is the extra-dangerous zone that is always inundated in any eruption but only distributes near the lava spillway of the crater. The second level with orange color is the dangerous zone that is inundated in the medium scale eruption. The third level with yellow color is the sub-dangerous zone that is corresponding to the large eruption. The fourth level with blue color is the potential dangerous zone that is only inundated in the extra-large eruption. In addition, we put forward the suggestion to respond to and avoid the disaster in future. Although China has not been affected by the lava flow for nearly three hundred years, the prospective study in this paper will lay the foundation for the study of related disasters, and provide the reference for the major construction projects in the volcanic area.

Key words: kinematic thermo-rheological model, Ashikule volcano, lava flow hazard zoning, effusion rates, applied simulation

摘要： 以新疆阿什库勒火山群为研究实例，进行了熔岩流灾害区划的探索性研究。首先，在野外地质调查和岩石学基础上，通过系列经验公式计算和设定了研究区岩浆的密度、黏度和溢出温度等参数。利用熔岩流的热流变运动学模型先进行了实验性模拟，检验了参数设定的合理性和方法的可行性；继而开展了针对研究区的应用型模拟，计算了未来熔岩喷发在不同喷发规模下的覆盖范围。最后通过对模拟结果的分析和借鉴国外灾害区划的方法，进行了阿什库勒火山区灾害的极危险、危险、次危险和潜在危险4级区划，同时提出了相应等级灾害的应对方案和规划建议。虽然中国近300a来未遭遇熔岩流灾害的影响，但文中前瞻性的研究工作将为中国相关灾害研究提供思路，也为中国活动火山区的未来灾害预警和工程建设提供方法储备。

关键词: 热流变运动学模型, 熔岩流灾害区划, 阿什库勒火山群, 溢出速率, 应用性模拟