PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON THE POSSIBLE AREA OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE IN FUTURE ALONG THE SHANDONG-JIANGSU-ANHUI SEGMENT OF TANCHENG-LUJIANG FAULT ZONE

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2016.04.013

Abstract

Abstract:

Tancheng-Lujiang Fault runs through Shandong,Jiangsu,Anhui Provinces of East China,and this segment is called the Shandong-Jiangsu-Anhui segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone in the paper.By comparative analysis on the data of seismogeology,deep seismic exploration,seismic tomography,seismic activity,geomorphology,crustal motion velocity field and deformation observation,etc.,and based on the principles of historical earthquake recurrence and structure analogy,the possibility is discussed of the occurrence of strong earthquake in the Shandong-Jiangsu-Anhui segment.It is found by comparison between the Wangji-Jiashan region of south Sihong County and epicenter area of the 1668 Tancheng M 8¹/₂ earhtquake that there are high similarities between these two regions in terms of deep-seated and shallow geologic structure,neotectonic movement,and seismic activity,etc.According to the studies of historic seismic event recurrence and tectonic comparison,the area along Wangji to Jiashan of Sihong County along the Shandong-Jiangsu-Anhui segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone is likely to generate M7 or above strong earthquake.

Key words: Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone, deep crustal velocity structure, strong earthquake, earthquake prediction

摘要：

郯庐断裂带穿越中国东部鲁、苏、皖等3省，文中称此段为郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段。通过地震地质、深地震勘探、天然地震层析成像、地震活动、地貌和现今地壳运动速度场等方面资料的分析和对比研究，根据历史地震重演原则和地质构造类比原则，对郯庐断裂带鲁苏晥段未来强震的可能发生地段进行了探讨。泗洪南（王集）-嘉山一带与1668年郯城8¹/₂级地震震中地区对比分析发现，两处在深、浅部地质构造、新构造运动、地震活动性等方面存在较大的相似性。结合郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段7级及以上强震的分布及其重现周期等方面综合分析，初步认为，郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段在泗洪南（王集）-嘉山一带存在发生7级或7级以上强地震的可能性。

关键词: 郯庐断裂带, 深部速度结构, 强震, 地震预测

CLC Number:

P315.2

XIONG Zhen, LI Qing-he, ZHANG Yuan-sheng, HOU Kang-min, JIN Shu-mei, ZHOU Cai-xia. PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON THE POSSIBLE AREA OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE IN FUTURE ALONG THE SHANDONG-JIANGSU-ANHUI SEGMENT OF TANCHENG-LUJIANG FAULT ZONE[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2016, 38(4): 964-977.

熊振, 李清河, 张元生, 侯康明, 金淑梅, 周彩霞. 郯庐断裂带鲁苏晥段未来强震可能发生地段初探[J]. 地震地质, 2016, 38(4): 964-977.

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