Abstract: On 14 November 2001,an extraordinarily large earthquake(M_S 8.1)occurred on the Hoh Sai Hu segment of the eastern Kunlun Fault,northern Tibetan Plateau. The seismogenic fault,Hoh Sai Hu segment,is a left-lateral fault with a high slip rate in the geological history,and the average slip rate reaches(14.8±2.8)mm/a since the late Pleistocene. Different slip rates of Hoh Sai Hu segment can affect the fault motion in the future. So,the paper analyzes the effect of different slip rates and different initial friction coefficients on the fault surface of the Hoh Sai Hu segment of eastern Kunlun Fault on the rupture behaviors of the fault. In the research,we apply the single degree of spring block model controlled by the rate- and state-dependent frictional constitutive laws. Using the fault dislocation model and based on ancient earthquake researches,historical earthquakes data and the achievements of previous researchers,we obtained the parameters of the model. Through the numerical simulation of rupturing motion of the Hoh Sai Hu segment in the future 6500 years under different slip rates,we find that a faster annual slip rate will shorten the recurrence interval of earthquake. For example,the earthquake recurrence interval is 2100a at a slip rate of 0.014m/a,which agrees with previous research results,but,the recurrence interval will be 1000～1500a and 2100～2500a,corresponding to the slip rates of 0.018m/a and 0.008m/a,respectively. Slip rate of fault has no regular effect on the coseismic slip rate and displacement of fault in an earthquake. The initial friction coefficient on the fault surface has effect on earthquake recurrence interval. A smaller initial friction coefficient will lengthen earthquake recurrence interval. At the same time,the smaller initial friction coefficient will lead to larger slip rate and displacement of fault when earthquake occurs.

Key words: fault, spring-block model, rupture behavior, earthquake recurrence interval

摘要： 2001年11月14日,青藏高原北部东昆仑断裂带库赛湖段发生了M_S 8.1地震。此次地震的发震断裂在地质史上具有高速左旋滑动的特征,特别是晚更新世晚期以来库赛湖断裂的平均滑动速率达(14.8±2.8)mm/a。库赛湖断裂不同的滑动速率可能会对其未来发生的运动行为产生影响,为此文中研究了东昆仑活动断裂带库赛湖段不同滑动速率和不同断裂面初始摩擦系数对断裂破裂行为的影响,建立了库赛湖断裂段对应的速度和状态依赖摩擦定律控制的单自由度弹簧滑块模型。为得到合理的模型参数,模拟中采用了断裂位错模型,考察了相关古地震研究资料、历史地震资料以及前人的相关研究成果。通过模拟库赛湖断裂段在不同滑动速率下未来6ka的破裂行为,发现断裂滑动速率快可使地震复发周期缩短,滑动速率慢会使地震复发周期延长。例如,若断裂以现今平均14mm/a的初始滑动速率运动时,地震复发周期为2.1ka; 若以18mm/a的初始滑动速率运动,其对应地震复发周期为1～1.5ka; 而滑动速率为8mm/a时地震复发周期为2.1～2.5ka,但断裂滑动速率对地震发生时断裂错动的位移和错动速度没有规律性影响; 断裂面初始摩擦系数的大小对地震复发周期有影响,初始摩擦系数较大可能会使地震周期减小,初始摩擦系数小可能会使地震复发周期增加; 同时,断裂面初始摩擦系数较小可能会使地震发生时断裂错动的位移和错动速度变大。

关键词: 断裂, 弹簧滑块模型, 破裂行为, 地震复发周期