Abstract: Based on the analysis of fluid anomaly data and investigation of macro precursor of the M_S 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,and having taken careful consideration of the difficulty and ability of predicting earthquake,we found that the failed prediction of the M_S 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake doesn't mean that earthquakes can't be predicted.There were,though not much in quantity,a certain amount of underground fluid anomalies and remarkable macro anomalies occurring before the earthquake.Though it is difficult to predict the earthquake basing on them,it is possible to be aware of the impending earthquake.To improve the ability of earthquake prediction,the paper proposes to innovate the present work and administrative systems,in which,earthquake monitoring,prediction and research are separate each other,and professional and local forces are separate each other,to change the present work state of computer-replacing-human brain and the work mode of the too early use of formality and standardization,and to attach greater importance to investigation and confirmation of precursory anomalies and to monitoring and studying macro anomalies.

Key words: M_S 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, earthquake prediction, underground fluid anomaly, macro precursor anomaly

摘要： 在汶川M_S 8.0地震地下流体异常资料的收集整理与宏观前兆异常的现场调查基础上,认真分析目前地震预测的困难与能力之后,认为汶川M_S 8.0地震的预测失败并不意味着地震不能预测;认为汶川M_S 8.0地震前前兆异常的数量偏少,但仍有一定规模的地下流体异常与明显的宏观临震异常;还认为震前作出预测可能困难,但震前有所觉察应是可能的。为提高中国地震预测能力,提出了要改革目前的"监测、预测、研究三分离"的管理机制和"专业与地方两条线"的管理体制,要改变地震日常分析预报中"电脑代替人脑"的工作现状和过早地"程式化与规范化"的工作模式,要提倡创新性的科学探索,要重视前兆异常的震前调查与落实,要重视宏观异常的监测与研究等的工作建议。

关键词: 汶川M_S 8.0地震, 地震预测, 地下流体异常, 宏观前兆异常