Abstract: It is well known that the appearance of a vast amount of macro-anomalous phenomena is an important sign of strong activity of crust and is often followed by the occurrence of strong earthquake.Some examples of successful short-impending prediction of strong earthquake depended greatly on the appearance of a vast amount of macro-anomalous phenomena.The most famous examples are the cases of Haicheng,Longling and Songpan strong earthquakes.During the crucial moment of the prediction of these earthquakes,macro-anomalous phenomena had played an important role,which might not be replaced by microa-nomalous phenomena.It may indicate that the successful prediction of strong earthquake would not come true without macro-anomalous phenomena. However,in the period from May to June of 2002,after a vast amount of reliable macro-anomalous phenomena coming forth in Xichang area,Sichuan Province,the expected earthquake did not occur.The analysis has shown that these anomalous phenomena are controlled by tectonic structure,and their distribution bears a close relation with fault structure,and especially the anomaly of ground water has a notable tectonic attribute. This fact may indicate that the macro-anomalous phenomena are not equivalent to earthquake precursor,and they posses duality.On the one hand they can be regarded as an important short-impending earthquake precursor,and on the other hand they may reflect the anomaly of tectonic activity,rather than the precursor of earthquake.During the development of earthquake prediction,therefore,the observation,analysis and study of the macro-anomalous phenomena should be greatly enhanced,so that earthquake precursor can be distinguished from the anomaly of tectonic activity.In this way,the macro-anomalous phenomena will play a more and more important role in earthquake prediction.

Key words: macro-anomalous phenomena, earthquake precursor, anomaly of tectonic activity, earthquake prediction

摘要： 宏观异常的大规模出现是地壳强烈活动的重要标志,常与其后的强震活动相关。中国多次强震短临预测的成功,在一定程度上依赖于大规模的宏观异常。然而,宏观异常也具有二重性,一方面可作为重要的地震短临前兆,另一方面也可能是由构造活动引起的,不具有前兆的性质。因此,在地震预报的科学探索中,应大力加强宏观异常的观察、观测、分析与研究,识别地震前兆与构造活动异常的区别,使宏观异常在地震预报中发挥积极的作用。

关键词: 宏观异常, 地震前兆, 构造活动异常, 地震预报