Abstract: This paper discusses mainly the problem of the prediction of economic and life losses caused by earthquake disaster for Tianjin City. Five background factors for earthquake hazard prediction for Tianjin City are analyzed in detail. These factors include the features of buildings, the geological condition, the construction site, the basic intensity of seismic design and the attenuation of seismic intensity. According to these factors, for the purpose of seismic hazard prediction, Tianjin City can be divided into 4 areas with 7 structural styles of buildings. Furthermore, the models of economic and life losses caused by earthquake for Tianjin City are analyzed by taking account of the time factor. The models are compared with the actual hazards caused by the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, and some modifications have been made according to the result of comparison. The economic loss ratio DR(I_i), the ratio of public wealth loss f(I_i)and the ratio of collapsed buildings CR(I_i)caused by earthquake for the four areas of Tianjin City are provided in this paper, and the formulas used for predicting the economic losses of buildings, the economic losses of the general dominion production(GDP)and the life losses caused by earthquake are provided as well. Basing on these results, we divide Tianjin City into 2 858 units for seismici hazard assessment. And by supposing the occurrence of an earthquake of magnitude equal to that of the maximum earthquake that had occurred in Tianjin City in the past hundred years, we provide the distribution maps of the possible economic and life losses within these 2 858 units of Tianjin City. The result of this study is of practical significance to seismic hazard prediction and reduction for Tianjin City.

Key words: earthquake prediction, economic loss model, life loss model, Tianjin City

摘要： 文中主要探讨了由地震引起的天津市经济损失和生命损失的预测问题.首先阐述了天津市震害预测的5个背景特点:建筑物特点、地质条件特点、建筑场地划分特点、基本设防烈度特点以及地震烈度衰减关系特点,根据这5个特点将天津市划分为含有7种建筑结构形式的4个区域的震害预测模式.在此基础上,分析了天津市地震经济损失模型和生命损失模型,考虑了时间因素,然后与1976年唐山大地震的实际震害结果进行了对比及修正,给出了天津市4个区域的建筑物地震经济损失率模型、社会财富损失率模型和建筑物毁坏率模型,并给出了计算天津市建筑物地震经济损失、天津市国内生产总值GDP地震经济损失和天津市地震生命损失的表达式;最后,将天津市地区划分为2 858个震害评估单元,以近百年来在天津市区域内曾经发生的最大地震作为假想地震,预测分析了天津市建筑物地震经济损失分布和地震生命损失分布结果.

关键词: 震害预测, 地震经济损失模型, 地震生命损失模型, 天津市