Abstract: In October 1996 the prediction was made that the region along Yanqin,Zhangjiakou,Shangdu and Jining northwest to Beijing is also the area of stress concentration and should be given attention.The Zhangbei Shangyi earthquake of January 1998 occurred just at the central area confined by Zhangjiakou,Shangdu and Jining.Therefore this long term estimation for the seismic risk area should be considered to be successful.Combination of macroscope and microscope should be beneficial and effective for earthquake prediction.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Precursorary geology, ZhangbeiShangyi earthquake

摘要： 1996年10月提出京西北延庆、张家口、商都、集宁一带属高应力集中区,值得进一步注意的预测意见,1998年1月10日发生的张北-尚义地震正处在张家口、商都、集宁围限的中心地区,作为中长期地震危险区判断应该说是相当成功的。在地震预报上宏观微观结合应该是有益的,行之有效的。

关键词: 地震预报, 征兆地质学, 张北-尚义地震