Abstract: This paper is to summarize and restudy the mid long term prediction of Zhangbei Shangyi earthquake throuth seismic activity analysis.First,Yanshan Bohai seismic belt was divided into four sections by the analysis of seismic activity and Zhangjiakou section was predicted to be the risk zone where strong shocks may occur in the futrue.Second,No.28 potential zone was predicted to be the risk zone in 1～3 years.This area is near the epicenter of the Zhangbei Shangyi earthquake.Third,restudy of the prediction indicates that strong earthquake structrue background should be taken seriously and regional seismic activity is important too.

Key words: Seismic activity, Triggering seismic fault, ZhangbeiShangyi earthquake

摘要： 从地震活动性分析对张北-尚义地震所作的中长期预测进行总结与反思。首先通过张北-尚义地震所在的燕山-渤海北西向地震带的地震活动性分析,对该带作了分段,并确认了张家口段为未来中强震的危险段。第二步通过TBB法计算确认了该段内28号潜源为1～3a的危险区,该区靠近张北震中区,此次地震震中即在使用资料范围内。第三步,由对预报结果的反思,提出应加强中强地震构造背景的研究,特别要注意区域地震活动。

关键词: 地震活动性, 发震断裂, 张北-尚义地震