Abstract: Basing on the charateristics of recent surficial faulting, discontinuity of the faults, slip rates and prehistorical earthquakes, we discuss the earthquake potential on the northern segment of the Anninghe fault zone in this paper. We believe that the discontinuous fault segments have become the units of seismic ruptures by individual events, and hence provide the earthquake potential. Among the segments the northern segment near Yejidong has the highest seismic potential and the magnitude about 7. We also believe that this segment has high seismic hazard because the time clapsed since the last event has reached an average recurrence interval of prehistorical earthquakes.

Key words: Anninghe fault zone, Recent surficial faulting, Fault segmentation, Prehistosical earthquake

摘要： 从最新地面活断层的不连续性,断层滑动速率以及古地震研究的角度讨论安宁河断裂带北段的地震潜在能力,认为不连续的活断层可能成为各自独立的地震破裂单元,从而决定了地震的潜在能力,其中,野鸡洞破裂段的潜在地震能力最强,可达7级。上次地震至今的平静时间已接近古地震的平均重现间隔,因而具有高度的地震危险性。

关键词: 安宁河断裂带, 最新地面活断层, 断层分段, 古地震