Abstract: Shanxi graben system is one of the most famous strong earthquake belts on China Continent. In this paper, the problems on recurrence and migration of the historic strong earthquakes (M≥6), the precusory anomalies of the intermediate and strong earthquakes (41/3≤M<7) before M≥7 earthquakes occurring, and linear segmentation of the strain accumulation curves are discussed. The temporary trends of the recent and future seismicities are analysed. Finally the possible seismic risk areas in which intermediate and strong earthquake may occur are also outlined in the graben system.

Key words: Shanxi graben system, Earthquake episode, Structural zonation, Seismic risk area

摘要： 山西地堑系是我国著名的历史强震活动带之一。作者系统地分析了山西地堑系历史强震的重复和迁移现象、M≥7级地震前中强地震的活动特征、蠕变曲线的线性分段性,并根据近期地震活动的特点,判断了现今地震活动暂态和未来地震活动性;最后,在现有的形变测量资料、历史地震和古地震研究成果的基础上,确定了山西地堑系内可能发生强震的危险区段。

关键词: 山西地堑系, 地震活动期, 地震构造区划, 危险区段