Abstract: Based on the recurrence rates of strong shocks, the spatial and temporal relation between small and moderate earthquakes and the occurrence of strong shocks, the gap in fault zone, the immunity of strong shocks as well as estimation of seismic risk in North China in the coming 5-10 years, the way of describing spatial and temporal heterogeneity in potential seismic source region is discussed. The weighed coefficients are defined to describe the spatial and temporal heterogeneity, as example, in several potential source regions in the north part of Hebei province. In combination with the Weibull distribution, different reccurrence rates in each year are obtained, which may be applied to seismic risk analysis.

Key words: Synthetic propability method, Potential seismic source region, Spatial and temporal heterogeneity

摘要： 本文由强地震的重复性、中小地震活动图象与强震发生的时空关系、破裂空段、大地震的减震性及华北5—10年危险性估计入手,利用综合概率法,讨论描述潜在震源区时空不均匀性的途经与方法。并以河北省北部的部份潜在震源区为例,确定了描述这些潜在震源区时空不均匀性的加权系数,并结合由韦布尔分布确定的年发生率,得出了可应用于危险性分析的不同的年发生率。

关键词: 综合概率法, 潜在震源区, 时空不均匀性