Abstract: On the basis of main characteristics of moderate earthquakes: periodicity, cruster, repartition, and migration regularity and simularity between the forshock activity paatern of moderate earthquake: seismic gaps, seismic bands, and seismically quiet area in a time-space diagram and precursor emerged in small earthquake in future, the author made a preliminary approach on the tendency of moderate earthquake for next some years in Jiangsu Province and Southern-yellow sea area.

Key words: Jangsu Province, SouthernYellow Sea, Moderate earthquake, Mid-range earthquake forecast

摘要： 本文根据区域中强地震活动的主要特征,周期性、丛集性、重复性和迁移规律,中强地震前的前震活动图象,前震环形空区,前震“时—空弯形”平静区和前震条带与近期小震活动出现的异常图象的相似性,对中强地震预报的方法进行了探索。

关键词: 江苏, 南黄海, 中强地震, 中期地震预报