Abstract: From the information oi active faults and focal mechanism the behaviour of fault zones is described plastically according to the increment concept.The stress field of the fault in relation to fault geometry and regional stress field is estimated numerically by using nonlinear finite element method.The Coulomb-Navier theory is used as criteria for failure of element in fault zones.For some elements'stresses are released with each time incremental step.Thus,a process of variation and adjustment of stress (ield of the fault can be simulated and the potential stress release area can also be determined on the basis of stress pattern of element.Combining the ratio of the radius of stress circle of future stress release area to that of the largest historical stress release area with the ratio of the volume of the future stress release area to that of the largest historical stress release area,we can estimate intensity of future stress release.

摘要： 根据已知的活动断层和地震机制资料,取断裂带为弹塑性材料模型,采用非线性有限单元法计算断层应力场。应用库伦-纳维强度理论作为断裂带上各单元应力释放可能性的判据,在计算过程的每一时间增量步中都可能伴随有某些单元释放应力。以此方法模拟断层应力场的变化和调整过程,根据单元应力调整图象,判断未来应力释放潜伏区。以未来应力释放区的应力圆半径和体积分别与历史上释放过最大应力强度的区域的应力圆半径和体积的比值联合作为估算未来应力释放强弱等级的判据。