Abstract: Calculating the coseismic static Coulomb stress change induced by an earthquake and interseismic stress change permits to explain the distribution of aftershocks, the earthquake sequence and other seismic observations. Four earthquakes greater than M7 have occurred in the Longmenshan area before the 2013 Lushan earthquake since 1900. This paper analyzes the influence of these four events on the Lushan earthquake, the stress evolution after the Lushan earthquake accompany with strong earthquake sequence on Longmenshan Fault, and the stress state of the gap between the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes. To address these issues would help future seismic risk assessment in the region. We construct a three dimensional finite element model based on the geological structure, the deep inversion results of density and velocity, and the GPS and the stress observation data. The simulation results show that the annual variation rate of Coulomb stress is higher on the Xianshuihe fault and southern segment of the Longmenshan fault, which is consistant with the regional seismicity. The coseismic Coulomb stresses induced by Kangding, Songpan, and Wenchuan earthquakes at the Lushan earthquake epicenter is greater than 0, implying that the three earthquakes may promote the occurrence of the Lushan earthquake, especially the Wenchuan earthquake. The viscous relaxation is remarkable which cannot be ignored in the analysis of stress evolution. From the stress evolution of this area, we can find that the gap between the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes is still at a relatively high stress level after the Lushan earthquake.

Key words: Coseismic Coulomb failure stress, inter-seismic effect, Visco-elastic finite element model, Earthquake triggering, Stress evolution

摘要： 计算包括同震静态库仑破裂应力变化以及震后黏滞松弛引起的应力变化等，可以更好地解释余震分布、地震序列等地震观测结果。在芦山地震之前，从1900年以来龙门山区域发生了4次7级以上地震，分析这几次地震的同震应力变化以及震后黏弹性松弛对芦山地震的产生的影响，芦山地震以后区域断裂带上的应力伴随强震如何演化，芦山地震与汶川地震的破裂空段呈现何种应力状态，探讨这些问题可能会为了解芦山地震震源处震前的应力状态及该区域未来地震风险评估提供一定的依据。文中采用有限元数值模拟方法，根据地质构造、速度、密度结构深部反演结果以及GPS及应力观测资料等，建立龙门山地区三维黏弹性有限元模型进行研究。模拟结果显示：龙门山断裂带南段及鲜水河断裂带的库仑应力年变化速率在研究区域中相对更高，这与研究区域的地震活动性一致。芦山地震的前4次地震，除叠溪地震外，康定、松潘、汶川等3次地震在芦山地震震中位置产生的同震库仑破裂应力变化大于0，表明这3次地震可能促进了芦山地震的发生，汶川地震的同震库仑破裂应力超过了0.01MPa，同震触发效应十分显著。震间的黏弹性松弛对芦山震源处起加载作用，从1900年以来这种持续的加载作用也超过0.01MPa，因此在模拟应力演化的时候，介质的黏弹性松弛效应不能被忽略。从库仑破裂应力的角度计算龙门山区域断层的应力演化，可以发现龙门山断裂带上汶川地震和芦山地震破裂的空段，在芦山地震之后仍然属于相对应力水平较高的区域。

关键词: 同震库仑破裂应力, 震间效应, 黏弹性有限元模型, 地震触发, 应力演化