RESEARCH ON METHOD OF ESTIMATING GROUND MOTION PARAMETERS IN WESTERN CHINA USING INTENSITY DATA

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2014.04.009

Abstract

Abstract:

Probability distributions P(I|GM) for Bayesian methods are established from an intensity/ground motion dataset for 6 earthquakes in western China. We tested the method using intensity to estimate the ground motions and found it is feasible for two earthquakes: Luhuo Sichuan earthquake (M5.3) and Jiashi Xingjian earthquake (M5.8) in 2011. This study also shows that the estimation accuracy of Bayesian method is significantly correlated with the priori probability (attenuation relationship). Comparison of root-mean-squares (rms) of PGAs estimated using the ground motion parameter means of each intensity level, the ground motion parameter from attenuation relationship and the Bayesian method with the observations shows that the accuracy of the parameters estimated by Bayesian method is much better than that by the other two methods.

Key words: ground motion parameters, seismic intensity, Bayesian methods, ground motion attenuation relationship

摘要：

通过最近收集到的中国西部地区的6次地震的地震动参数和烈度数据, 建立了该地区适用于贝叶斯方法的各烈度档P(I|GM)的经验分布.利用2011年发生的四川炉霍地震和新疆伽师地震资料验证了依据烈度数据用贝叶斯方法估算峰值加速度的可行性.研究结果还表明, 用贝叶斯方法估计的参数精度与选择的先验概率(衰减关系)显著相关.针对这2次地震, 用各烈度档地震动参数的均值法、地震动衰减关系法及贝叶斯法3种方法估算的峰值加速度值与峰值加速度观测值之间的均方根比较表明, 用贝叶斯方法估算的参数精度优于用另2种方法所获结果.

关键词: 地震动参数, 地震烈度, 贝叶斯方法, 地震动衰减关系

CLC Number:

P315.9

CHEN Kun, YU Yan-xiang, GAO Meng-tan, KANG Chuan-chuan. RESEARCH ON METHOD OF ESTIMATING GROUND MOTION PARAMETERS IN WESTERN CHINA USING INTENSITY DATA[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2014, 36(4): 1043-1052.

陈鲲, 俞言祥, 高孟潭, 亢川川. 中国西部地区利用烈度数据估计地震动参数的方法[J]. 地震地质, 2014, 36(4): 1043-1052.

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