Abstract:

At the present stage,the quakeproof-disaster-reduction strategy in China should focus on the macroseism resistance fortification of the regional constructions in the areas where the next strong earthquake is going to occur.The key to implementing this strategy is to precisely predict the location of the next macroseism,rather than the time it will occur (We define this kind of forecast as "the third-type earthquake forecast").Our analysis shows that the next macroseism would most likely occur on those large-scale,severely locked faults located in rigid strong medium and under intensive continuous stress concentration.These characteristic places can be located by employing three technological means,namely,fault survey,crustal stress measurement and cross-fault deformation measurement.Related technologies have been proven feasible.Thus we provide a solution which may lead to the breakthrough for the current quakeproof disaster reduction research in our country.

Key words: quakeproof disaster reduction strategy, next macroseism location, corresponding fortification, the third-type earthquake forecast

摘要：

分析认为,"针对下一次强震将要发生的地点实施区域建筑抗震设防"应为现阶段中国防震减灾寻求突破在基本对策上的一种合理选择。这一思路的关键是需要准确地知道下一次强震将要发生在哪里,而不必知道将发生在何时(文中姑且将回答这一问题的地震预测称为 "第三类地震预测")。按照 "排除法"的思路,分析得到了 "强应力、强介质、大规模、且呈严重闭锁状态的断层,其中地应力呈持续强势集中的部位,将是下一次强震最可能发生的地点"的逻辑推断。寻找符合上述特征的地点,可通过 "断层研究、地应力测量和跨断层形变测量"3个方面技术手段的综合应用。所涉及的具体技术似已具备可行性。从而就现阶段中国防震减灾寻求突破提出了一种可以付诸试验的解决思路,以供讨论与参考。

关键词: 防震减灾基本对策, 下一次强震地点, 针对性设防, 第三类地震预测