Abstract: Based on seismic data of the regional network of the last 34 years,we have analyzed current faulting behaviors of major fault zones in Mabian area,southern Sichuan,and preliminarily identified the risky fault-segments on which potential strong and large earthquakes may occur in future,with the method combining the spatial distribution of b-values with activity background of historical strong earthquakes and current seismicity.Our results mainly show:(1)The spatial distribution of b values displays significant heterogeneity in the study area,which reflects the spatial difference of cumulative stress level along various fault zones and segments in the area;(2)Three anomalously low b-value areas with different sizes exist on Mabian-Yanjin Fault zone,these anomalies can be identified as asperities under relatively high cumulated stress levels,in which,two asperities,located at north of Mabian county and Lidian town in western Muchuan county,and near Yanjin at the south end of the fault zone,respectively,may be the potential seismogenic sources of large earthquakes in Mabian area in the near future,and the third asperity with a small size located at southern Suijiang may be the potential strong-earthquake source;(3)An asperity at south-western segment of Longquanshan Fault may be the site of potential moderate to strong earthquakes;and(4)the asperity on the segment between Huangmu town in Hanyuan county and Longchi town in Emeishan city on Jinkouhe-Meigu Fault has potential for moderate to strong earthquakes.

Key words: spatial distribution of b values, asperities, Mabian area, strong earthquake risk

摘要： 根据最近34a的区域台网地震资料,利用地震活动性参数b值的空间分布,结合历史强震与现今地震活动背景,分析了川南马边地区主要断裂带的现今活动习性,并初步判别出了潜在的强震危险区域。研究结果表明:1)马边地区的b值空间分布存在明显的空间差异,反映了该区域不同断裂带与断裂段应力积累水平的差异;2)马边-盐津断裂带上存在3个尺度不等的异常低b值区,它们可能是该断裂带上的相对高应力区(或凹凸体),其中位于马边北、沐川西部利店镇附近的凹凸体与位于该断裂带南端盐津附近的凹凸体可能是马边地区未来发生大地震的危险场所,而位于绥江南的小尺度凹凸体有可能是潜在强震的发生地点;3)存在于龙泉山断裂带西南段的凹凸体将是未来发生中强地震的场所;4)金口河-美姑断裂上位于汉源县皇木镇与峨眉山市龙池镇之间的凹凸体存在发生中强地震的可能性。

关键词: b值空间分布, 凹凸体, 马边地区, 强震危险性