Abstract: The cause and prediction of great earthquake are very complicated.It is difficult to totally summarize them using one model.In the paper,we use four models to describe them,namely,the superposition model,the combination model,the stereographic cross model and the modulation model.Each of the four models plays a different role in describing the preparation and occurrence of an earthquake.The superposition model deals with the problem about the driving force of earthquake preparation.The combination model discusses the problem about the structure of earthquake source.The stereographic cross model discusses the problem of how the asperity on the fault plane in the seismic source forms.And the modulation model focuses on the problem about that external factors triggering instability in the source region and its vicinity during short and imminent term before an earthquake.The paper tries to make a retrospective prediction of the M_S 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 using the abovementioned models.

Key words: earthquake source model, great Wenchuan earthquake, earthquake prediction

摘要： 大地震的成因与预测是很复杂的,很难用一个模式把它们全面概括起来,所以文中用4个模式来描述。这4个模式分别是叠加模式、组合模式、立交模式和调制模式。它们在震源孕育和发震过程中各有各的功能。叠加模式是讨论孕震力源问题的,组合模式是讨论震源结构问题的,立交模式是讨论孕震断层面上的凹凸齿合是如何形成的问题的,调制模式是讨论临发震前震源处的不稳定与外因的关系问题的。文中用以上4个模式讨论2008年汶川8级地震的回顾性预测。

关键词: 震源模式, 汶川大地震, 地震预测