关键词: 综合概率法, 潜在震源区, 时空不均匀性

Abstract: Based on the recurrence rates of strong shocks, the spatial and temporal relation between small and moderate earthquakes and the occurrence of strong shocks, the gap in fault zone, the immunity of strong shocks as well as estimation of seismic risk in North China in the coming 5-10 years, the way of describing spatial and temporal heterogeneity in potential seismic source region is discussed. The weighed coefficients are defined to describe the spatial and temporal heterogeneity, as example, in several potential source regions in the north part of Hebei province. In combination with the Weibull distribution, different reccurrence rates in each year are obtained, which may be applied to seismic risk analysis.

Key words: Synthetic propability method, Potential seismic source region, Spatial and temporal heterogeneity