关键词: 矿井崩塌, 鲁15井, 前兆, ΣN-t图, No-Δt图

Abstract: Evident is the response of water level in the well Lu-15 to the process of mine collapse. Tentative analysis shows that using some precursory phenomena before a bigger mine collapse,a prediction of earthquake for the bigger mine collapse will can be made. For instance,the active time of less collapse before the bigger collapse will increase; the average change of water level in the well in each active period,the duration time ine ach active period and each calm period will all change before the bigger collapse: the abnormalities in the ΣN-t and No-Δt curves will all appear 28 days before the bigger collapse.

Key words: Mine collapse, Well Lu-15, Precursor, ΣN-t diagram, No-Δt diagram