关键词: 安宁河断裂带, 最新地面活断层, 断层分段, 古地震

Abstract: Basing on the charateristics of recent surficial faulting, discontinuity of the faults, slip rates and prehistorical earthquakes, we discuss the earthquake potential on the northern segment of the Anninghe fault zone in this paper. We believe that the discontinuous fault segments have become the units of seismic ruptures by individual events, and hence provide the earthquake potential. Among the segments the northern segment near Yejidong has the highest seismic potential and the magnitude about 7. We also believe that this segment has high seismic hazard because the time clapsed since the last event has reached an average recurrence interval of prehistorical earthquakes.

Key words: Anninghe fault zone, Recent surficial faulting, Fault segmentation, Prehistosical earthquake