关键词: 构造法, 概率法, 极限安全地震

Abstract: The results obtained by probabilistic method and those obtained by seimotectonic method are compared. The result suggest that (1) the result by seismotectonic method is not an upper limit determined by probabilistic method; (2)the relationship between the results obtained by both these methods at certain exceedance probability levels depends mainly on the variance of attenuation law and the annual occurrence rate of earthquakes; (3) ground motion attenuation law affects the results determined by both methods to certain extent, so the comparison must be under the same attenuation law. Because the result determined by seismotectonic method is not the upper limit of the result obtained by probabilistic method and it is uncertain whether the result obtained be seismotectonic method is larger or not, it is reasonable to use both methods as well as other methods to determine the safety shutdown earthquake.

Key words: Seismotectonic method, Probabilistic method, Safety shutdown earthquake