关键词: 同震位错, 地震复发间隔, 地震活动趋势

Abstract: We have studied the magnitude,epicentre of recent earthquakes,and spacial distribution of ground seismic ruptures on the Ganzi-Yushu fault. We have estimated the tendency of major earthquakes for each segment of the Ganzi-Yushu fault zone in the future 50 years by using the probability model of the general distribution for repeat time of characteristic earthquakes (Nishenko and Buland,1987). Our results show that the Manigange segment has high risk of recurrence of large earthquakes in the future 50 years. The possibility of major event recurrence on the Dangjiang segment also exists. These estimates can provide a basis for the long-and mid-term earthquake prediction for this region.

Key words: Coseismic dislocation, Earthquake recurrence interval, Seismicity trend