关键词: 新生断裂, 地震破裂分段, 地震预测, 龙陵, 澜沧

Abstract: Longling Lancang fault zone, consisting of sets of en echelon or conjugated short faults, is a newly generated rupture zone. It is characterized by high frequency, large magnitude, and short recurrence interval of earthquake activity, as well as by double main shock earthquake or earthquake swarm. The fault zone can be naturally divided into 4 first order segments and 13 secondary earthquake rupture segments, among which 4 segments can be further divided into 8 third order segments according to the differences in their internal geometry, fault length and seismicity. Generally speaking, the fault segment, on which large or strong earthquake occurred in history can be defined as earthquake rupture unit, while the segment on which the fault was active in Late Quaternary but no earthquake is recorded in history can be defined as locked element. The stepover or connecting structure between the faults is named as the barrier. In terms of the rupture pattern of historical earthquakes and paleoseismicity, the fault zone can be divided into 9 surface rupture units, 8 locked elements and 10 barriers. Surface rupturing earthquake may be transformed, triggered or migrated among these three kinds of units. At last, the risk segments of future large, strong and moderate earthquakes are predicted according to seismotectonic criteria. There are 9 predicted earthquake risk areas, among which one is large earthquake area located between Yongde and Yongkang region, three are strong earthquakes area located at Mazhan, Shihuiyao and Jiufang Menghun regions and five are moderate earthquakes area located at Xiashunjiang, Liren, Dagangshan, Nanming Lancang and Mengzhe regions, respectively.

Key words: Newly generated fault, Segmentation of earthquake rupture, Earthquake forecast, Longling, Lancang