关键词: 震害预测, 地震经济损失模型, 地震生命损失模型, 天津市

Abstract: This paper discusses mainly the problem of the prediction of economic and life losses caused by earthquake disaster for Tianjin City. Five background factors for earthquake hazard prediction for Tianjin City are analyzed in detail. These factors include the features of buildings, the geological condition, the construction site, the basic intensity of seismic design and the attenuation of seismic intensity. According to these factors, for the purpose of seismic hazard prediction, Tianjin City can be divided into 4 areas with 7 structural styles of buildings. Furthermore, the models of economic and life losses caused by earthquake for Tianjin City are analyzed by taking account of the time factor. The models are compared with the actual hazards caused by the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, and some modifications have been made according to the result of comparison. The economic loss ratio DR(I_i), the ratio of public wealth loss f(I_i)and the ratio of collapsed buildings CR(I_i)caused by earthquake for the four areas of Tianjin City are provided in this paper, and the formulas used for predicting the economic losses of buildings, the economic losses of the general dominion production(GDP)and the life losses caused by earthquake are provided as well. Basing on these results, we divide Tianjin City into 2 858 units for seismici hazard assessment. And by supposing the occurrence of an earthquake of magnitude equal to that of the maximum earthquake that had occurred in Tianjin City in the past hundred years, we provide the distribution maps of the possible economic and life losses within these 2 858 units of Tianjin City. The result of this study is of practical significance to seismic hazard prediction and reduction for Tianjin City.

Key words: earthquake prediction, economic loss model, life loss model, Tianjin City