关键词: 活动断层, 地表潜在突发位移, 概率性评价

Abstract: The deterministic method is currently adopted in offset-resisting design for fault-crossing linear engineering project. However, it considers merely the maximum displacement of the fault, and thus cannot meet the actual demand of anti-disaster designing. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic method for evaluation of the potential abrupt displacement on various positions of the fault. This method combines the distribution of the maximum displacement positions and the distribution of displacements on both sides of the positions with the recurrence model of strong earthquake. As a case study, the risk of potential offset on the Shengzhuang-Changtuan segment of the normal fault on the northern boundary of Huailai-Zhuolu Basin in future 100yr was estimated quantitatively. This estimation provides the potential offset along the active fault under different probability levels. The result of this study may provide basic data for offset-resisting design of fault-crossing linear engineering project.

Key words: active fault, potential ground offset, probabilistic assessment