青海门源2016年MW5.9和2022年MW6.7 2次地震的库仑应力触发作用及其对周边发震断裂的影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2025.01.019

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 分析地震之间的应力传递有助于分析及评估未来强震危险性。2016年门源 M_W5.9 地震和2022年门源 M_W6.7 地震都发生在祁连-海原断裂带的冷龙岭段, 研究2次地震对西侧“托莱山地震空区”的库仑应力影响可为更深入认识区域强震危险性提供科学依据。文中基于库仑应力理论、USGS(美国地质调查局)给出的有限断层模型及现场调查确定的主要发震断层的几何学和运动学参数, 分析探讨了2016年地震对2022年地震的触发机制、2022年地震对区域强余震的库仑应力作用及2次地震对空区内主要发震断裂的影响。结果表明, 2016年地震对2022年地震具有触发作用。其中, 2022年1月8日和1月12日 M_W5.1、M_W5.2和 M_W4.7 强余震明显受到1月8日 M_W6.7 主震的应力触发, 2022年1月12日发生的 M_W4.8 余震位于库仑应力卸载区, 主震产生的破裂延迟了 M_W4.8 地震的发生; 2016年和2022年2次门源地震对托莱山断裂带东段和肃南-祁连断裂带东段有显著的库仑应力加载作用, 后者产生的库仑应力变化量为0.3891bar和0.1658bar, 高于一般认为的地震触发阈值(0.1bar)。综合分析强震空间迁移趋势、余震空间分布、应变分配、古地震研究等资料, 发现托莱山断裂带东段和肃南-祁连断裂带东段的应力积累可能处于较高的状态, 2次门源地震的库仑应力加载将进一步增加2条发震断裂带东段未来发生强震的危险性。

关键词: 门源M_W5.9地震, 门源M_W6.7地震, 库仑应力变化, 肃南-祁连断裂带, 托莱山断裂带, 冷龙岭断裂带

Abstract:

Strong earthquakes are among the most severe natural disasters on Earth. Earthquake rupture involves complex physical processes, including fault slip, stress release, and seismic wave propagation. A deep understanding of the rupture processes of major earthquakes and the potential for triggered activity within regional active fault systems is critical for assessing the risk of strong earthquakes in a given area. Analyzing the stress transfer between earthquakes helps assess and evaluate the future seismic hazard. The Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone is an important boundary fault on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau. It plays a crucial role in absorbing and accommodating the convergence of the Indian Plate towards the Eurasian Plate in a NNE direction. With a total length of approximately 1000km, it is primarily composed of the Tolaishan Fault, the Lenglongling Fault, the Jinqianghe Fault, the Maomaoshan Fault, the Laohushan Fault, and the Haiyuan Fault. The 2016 M_W5.9 Menyuan earthquake and the 2022 M_W6.7 Menyuan earthquake both occurred in the Lenglongling segment of the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone. Studying the effects of these two earthquakes on the Coulomb stress of the “Tuolaishan seismic gap” to the west can provide the scientific basis for a deeper understanding of the regional seismic hazard. This article is based on the Coulomb stress theory, a finite fault model provided by the United States Geological Survey(USGS), and the geometric and kinematic parameters of the main seismogenic fault determined through field investigations. It analyzes and discusses the triggering mechanism of the 2016 earthquake on the 2022 earthquake, the Coulomb stress effects of the 2022 earthquake on regional strong aftershocks, and the impact of the two earthquakes on the main seismogenic faults in the unoccupied area. The results indicate that the 2016 earthquake triggered the 2022 earthquake. Specifically, the strong aftershocks of M_W5.1, M_W5.2, and M_W4.7 on January 8 and 12 in 2022 were significantly stress-triggered by the main shock of M_W6.7 on January 8, while the M_W4.8 aftershock on January 12th was located in a Coulomb stress unloading zone, possibly delaying its occurrence. The two Menyuan earthquakes in 2016 and 2022 significantly loaded Coulomb stress on the eastern segments of the Tuolaishan fault zone and the Sunan-Qilian fault zone, with the latter experiencing Coulomb stress changes of 0.3891bar and 0.1658bar, exceeding the commonly accepted seismic triggering threshold of 0.1bar. The 1920 Haiyuan earthquake, the 1927 Gulang earthquake, and the 2016 and 2022 Menyuan earthquakes show a spatial westward migration pattern, which may indicate a westward stress transfer trend. After the 2022 earthquake, the aftershock zones were mainly distributed in two directions: east-west(EW)and north-northwest(NNW). The former extends toward the eastern segment of the Tuolaishan fault zone, where stress was not fully released during the 2022 earthquake. The NNW-trending aftershock zone extends toward the east segment of the Subei-Qilian fault zone, where there is a lack of aftershocks, indicating that fault stress was not fully released during the earthquake. The eastern segments of the Tuolaishan fault zone and the Sunan-Qilian fault zone jointly absorbed and accommodated the left-lateral shear deformation of the central-western segment of the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone. Trench excavation revealed that the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake on the eastern segment of the Tuolaishan fault zone occurred(6080±450) $a$ BP, while that on the east segment of the Sunan-Qilian fault zone occurred between 3500 and 2328 $a$ BP. Therefore, by comprehensively analyzing data on the spatial migration trends of strong earthquakes, the spatial distribution of aftershocks, strain distribution, and studies on ancient earthquakes, it was found that the stress accumulation in the eastern segment of the Tuolai Mountain fault zone and the eastern segment of the Sunan-Qilian fault zone may be at a relatively high level. With the Coulomb stress loading from the two recent Menyuan earthquakes, the future seismic hazard of the eastern segments of these two fault zones is likely to increase further. The results of this study provide a reference basis for delineating seismic hazard zones on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.

Key words: Menyuan M_W5.9 earthquake, Menyuan M_W6.7 earthquake, Coulomb stress change, Sunan-Qilian Fault, Tuolaishan Fault, Lenglongling Fault

牛鹏飞, 韩竹军, 郭鹏, 刘冠伸, 罗佳宏, 郭钊吾. 青海门源2016年M_W5.9和2022年M_W6.7 2次地震的库仑应力触发作用及其对周边发震断裂的影响[J]. 地震地质, 2025, 47(1): 325-344.

NIU Peng-fei, HAN Zhu-jun, GUO Peng, LIU Guan-shen, LUO Jia-hong, GUO Zhao-wu. THE COULOMB STRESS TRIGGERING EFFECT OF 2016 M_W5.9 AND 2022 M_W6.7 EARTHQUAKES IN MENYUAN, QINGHAI AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE SURROUNDING SEISMOGENIC FAULTS[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2025, 47(1): 325-344.

图/表 10

表1 2次门源地震的断层模型

Table1 Fault models of the two Menyuan earthquakes

序号	日期	震级 /M_W	震源深度 /km	节面1			节面2			来源
序号	日期	震级 /M_W	震源深度 /km	走向 /(°)	倾角 /(°)	滑动角 /(°)	走向 /(°)	倾角 /(°)	滑动角 /(°)	来源
1	2016-01-21	5.9	13.9	343	51	109	134	43	68	GCMT
2	2022-01-08	6.7	14.8	104	82	1	14	89	172

图1 青藏高原东北缘主要活动断裂带与地震(M≥6.0)震中分布图 a 红色方框为图b范围, 黑色箭头指示块体运动方向。QHF 祁连-海原断裂带; ATF 阿尔金断裂带; KF 昆仑断裂带; XF 鲜水河断裂带。b 断裂位置与性质据文献(徐锡伟等, 2016); 地震数据来自中国地震信息网, 相对于稳定欧亚大陆的GPS速度场来自文献(Zhao et al., 2015)

Fig. 1 Distribution of major active faults and epicenters of earthquakes(M≥6.0)on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.

图2 2次门源地震余震和周边主要断裂分布图

Fig. 2 Aftershocks of the two Menyuan earthquakes and the distribution of major surrounding faults.

图3 托莱山断裂带东段和肃南-祁连断裂带东段典型地表破裂迹线卫星影像来自Google Earth。a托莱山断裂带的断错地貌及2022年门源地震地表破裂带迹线，分辨率为0.15m；b肃南-祁连断裂带断错地貌，分辨率为0.30m。

Fig. 3 Surface rupture traces of the eastern segment of the Tuolai Mountain fault zone and the eastern segment of the Sunan-Qilian fault zone.

图4 2016年门源地震对2022年门源地震的库仑应力作用

Fig. 4 Coulomb stress effect of the 2016 Menyuan earthquake on the 2022 Menyuan earthquake.

表2 2022年门源地震后续4次震级>MW4.5的强余震破裂参数

Table2 Rupture parameters of the four strong aftershocks greater than MW4.5 following the 2022 Menyuan earthquake

序号	日期	发震时刻	震级 /M_W	震中位置	震源深度 /km	节面1			节面2			来源
序号	日期	发震时刻	震级 /M_W	震中位置	震源深度 /km	走向 /(°)	倾角 /(°)	滑动角 /(°)	走向 /(°)	倾角 /(°)	滑动角 /(°)	来源
1	2022-01-08	02:09:05	5.1	101.217°E 37.773°N	9	0	73	-161	264	72	-18	许英才等, 2022
2	2022-01-12	18:20:41	5.2	101.469°E 37.703°N	13.6	210	72	177	301	87	18
3	2022-01-12	20:16:18	4.8	101.470°E 37.780°N	8	219	72	161	315	72	19
4	2022-01-12	21:01:53	4.7	101.475°E 37.697°N	14.2	218	81	152	313	62	10

图5 2022年门源地震对后续强余震的库仑应力作用 a MW5.1地震为接收断层; b MW5.2地震为接收断层; c MW4.8地震为接收断层; d MW4.7地震为接收断层

Fig. 5 Coulomb stress effect of the 2022 Menyuan earthquake on subsequent strong aftershocks.

图6 肃南-祁连断裂带东段几何学特征 a 剖离断层解译图; b、c 2处擦痕

Fig. 6 Geometric characteristics of the eastern segment of the Sunnan-Qilian Fault.

图7 2022年门源地震对周边发震断裂的库仑应力影响 a、b 以肃南-祁连断裂带东段为接收断层; c、d 以托莱山断裂带东段为接收断层

Fig. 7 Influence of the 2022 Menyuan earthquake on the Coulomb stress of surrounding seismogenic faults.

图8 祁连-海原断裂带中西段分布图

Fig. 8 Distribution of the central and western segments of the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone.

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