郯庐断裂带鲁苏晥段未来强震可能发生地段初探

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2016.04.013

地震地质 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 964-977.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2016.04.013

郯庐断裂带鲁苏晥段未来强震可能发生地段初探

熊振¹, 李清河¹, 张元生², 侯康明¹, 金淑梅¹, 周彩霞¹

1. 江苏省地震局, 南京 210014;
2. 中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 兰州 730000

收稿日期:2015-03-23 修回日期:2015-06-03 出版日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2017-01-20
通讯作者: 李清河,男,研究员,E-mail:qh_Ii2005@163.com
作者简介:熊振,男,1969年生,2010年在中国地震局地球物理研究所获固体地球物理专业博士学位,高级工程师,主要从事地震地质与地震工程方面的工作,电话:025-84285622,E-mail:Xz_nj@sina.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（40974031）；江苏省科技发展项目（BE2009691）；宿迁市活动断裂与危险性评价项目和中国地震局老专家基金（2016005）共同资助

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON THE POSSIBLE AREA OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE IN FUTURE ALONG THE SHANDONG-JIANGSU-ANHUI SEGMENT OF TANCHENG-LUJIANG FAULT ZONE

XIONG Zhen¹, LI Qing-he¹, ZHANG Yuan-sheng², HOU Kang-min¹, JIN Shu-mei¹, ZHOU Cai-xia¹

1. Earthquake Administration of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210014, China;
2. Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Adiministration, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received:2015-03-23 Revised:2015-06-03 Online:2016-12-20 Published:2017-01-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

郯庐断裂带穿越中国东部鲁、苏、皖等3省，文中称此段为郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段。通过地震地质、深地震勘探、天然地震层析成像、地震活动、地貌和现今地壳运动速度场等方面资料的分析和对比研究，根据历史地震重演原则和地质构造类比原则，对郯庐断裂带鲁苏晥段未来强震的可能发生地段进行了探讨。泗洪南（王集）-嘉山一带与1668年郯城8¹/₂级地震震中地区对比分析发现，两处在深、浅部地质构造、新构造运动、地震活动性等方面存在较大的相似性。结合郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段7级及以上强震的分布及其重现周期等方面综合分析，初步认为，郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段在泗洪南（王集）-嘉山一带存在发生7级或7级以上强地震的可能性。

关键词: 郯庐断裂带, 深部速度结构, 强震, 地震预测

Abstract:

Tancheng-Lujiang Fault runs through Shandong,Jiangsu,Anhui Provinces of East China,and this segment is called the Shandong-Jiangsu-Anhui segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone in the paper.By comparative analysis on the data of seismogeology,deep seismic exploration,seismic tomography,seismic activity,geomorphology,crustal motion velocity field and deformation observation,etc.,and based on the principles of historical earthquake recurrence and structure analogy,the possibility is discussed of the occurrence of strong earthquake in the Shandong-Jiangsu-Anhui segment.It is found by comparison between the Wangji-Jiashan region of south Sihong County and epicenter area of the 1668 Tancheng M 8¹/₂ earhtquake that there are high similarities between these two regions in terms of deep-seated and shallow geologic structure,neotectonic movement,and seismic activity,etc.According to the studies of historic seismic event recurrence and tectonic comparison,the area along Wangji to Jiashan of Sihong County along the Shandong-Jiangsu-Anhui segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone is likely to generate M7 or above strong earthquake.

Key words: Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone, deep crustal velocity structure, strong earthquake, earthquake prediction

中图分类号:

P315.2

熊振, 李清河, 张元生, 侯康明, 金淑梅, 周彩霞. 郯庐断裂带鲁苏晥段未来强震可能发生地段初探[J]. 地震地质, 2016, 38(4): 964-977.

XIONG Zhen, LI Qing-he, ZHANG Yuan-sheng, HOU Kang-min, JIN Shu-mei, ZHOU Cai-xia. PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON THE POSSIBLE AREA OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE IN FUTURE ALONG THE SHANDONG-JIANGSU-ANHUI SEGMENT OF TANCHENG-LUJIANG FAULT ZONE[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2016, 38(4): 964-977.

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郯庐断裂带鲁苏晥段未来强震可能发生地段初探

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON THE POSSIBLE AREA OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE IN FUTURE ALONG THE SHANDONG-JIANGSU-ANHUI SEGMENT OF TANCHENG-LUJIANG FAULT ZONE

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