重庆市主要构造地震危险性评价

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2013.03.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以重庆市活断层探测资料为基础,通过对该工作区的地震构造、地震活动性、构造应力场与形变场的分析,综合判定出目标区未来可能发生地震的最大震级为5.5≤M_S≤6.0。尝试将地震空间光滑模型应用到弱活动区城市活断层地震危险性评价中,充分利用历史强震和微震目录,分别建立了2种地震空间光滑模型,并采用泊松模型,对目标区未来百年的地震危险性(发震概率)进行了定量分析。结果表明:单条断裂发震概率值较低,未来发生5.5级以上破坏性地震的可能性较小。

关键词: 地震危险性, 城市活断层探测, 空间光滑模型, GPS, 重庆

Abstract:

The maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake in the target area is forecasted in this paper by synthetical analysis of tectonic structure,seismicity,stress and strain fields,based on data of the Chongqing urban active faults surveying. The maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake in the target area is 5.5≤M_S≤6.0. We try to use the spatially smoothed seismicity method in weakly active area. Two seismic hazard models in weakly active area based on spatially smoothed seismicity method are proposed using strong seismic catalog and small seismic catalog. The completeness of these two catalogs is analyzed based on EMR(Entire Magnitude Range)method. And the seismic hazard(probability)in the target area is calculated using Poisson model. The results show that the seismic probability value for a single fault is relatively low and the possibility of destructive earthquake of magnitude above 5.5 in the target area is small. There are still some uncertainty and reliability for the results because of the hypnosis of the spatially smoothed seismicity model. However it should be noticed that the technique of seismic hazard calculation described in this paper based on spatially smoothed seismicity method is a new try and has potential application for the weakly active area such as Chongqing.

Key words: seismic hazard analysis, active faults surveying, spatially smoothed seismicity model, GPS, Chongqing urban

中图分类号:

P315.9

李峰, 张效亮, 刘华国. 重庆市主要构造地震危险性评价[J]. 地震地质, 2013, 35(3): 518-531.

LI Feng, ZHANG Xiao-liang, LIU Hua-guo. SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN FAULTS IN CHONGQING URBAN AREA[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2013, 35(3): 518-531.

参考文献

陈立春,梁辉,冉勇康,等.2006.哈尔滨市主要断裂未来地震危险性评价［J］.地震地质,28(4): 675—689.
CHEN Li-chun,LIANG Hui,RAN Yong-kang,et al.2006.Earthquake risk assessment of the main faults in Harbin urban area［J］.Seismology and Geology,28(4): 675—689(in Chinese).
陈宇坤,刘芳,袁盾,等.2010.天津地区隐伏断裂地震危险性定量评价［J］.地震地质,32(1): 138—149.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2010.01.014.
CHEN Yu-kun,LIU Fang,YUAN Dun, et al.2010.Seismic risk quantitative evaluation on blind faults in Tianjin area［J］.Seismology and Geology,32(1): 138—149(in Chinese).
程式,刘文泰.1992.中国注水诱发地震的又一个实例［J］.地震,2(1): 63—66.
CHENG Shi,LIU Wen-tai,et al.1992.Another example of earthquake induced by water injection in China［J］.Earthquake,2(1): 63—66(in Chinese).
邓起东.2002.城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题［J］.地震地质,24(4): 601—605.
DENG Qi-dong.2002.Exploration and seismic hazard assessment of active faults in urban areas［J］.Seismology and Geology,24(4): 601—605(in Chinese).
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究［A］.见: 国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(2).北京: 地震出版社.247—264.
DENG Qi-dong,YU Gui-hua,YE Wen-hua.1992.Relationship between earthquake magnitude and parameters of surface ruptures associated with historical earthquakes［A］.In: Institute of Geology,SSB(ed).Research of Active Fault (2).Seismological Press,Beijing 247—264(in Chinese).
丁仁杰,李克昌,等.2004.重庆地震研究［M］.北京: 地震出版社.
DING Ren-jie,LI Ke-chang,et al.2004.Research of Earthquakes in Chongqing［M］.Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
高孟潭,肖和平,燕为民,等.2008.中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展［J］.震灾防御技术,3(1): 1—7.
GAO Meng-tan,XIAO He-ping,YAN Wei-min,et al.2008.The importance of seismicity zonation in moderate earthquake area and recent technical progress［J］.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,3(1): 1—7(in Chinese).
黄世源,魏红梅.2007.2006年荣昌地震活动与注水关系［J］.高原地震,19(2): 8—11.
HUANG Shi-yuan,WEI Hong-mei.2007.Relationship between the Rongchang earthquake 2006 and water injection［J］.Plateau Earthquake Research,19(2): 8—11(in Chinese).
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二: 分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像［J］.地震学报,16(4): 423—432.
HUANG Wei-qiong,LI Wen-xiang,CAO Xue-feng.1994.Research on completeness of earthquake data on the Chinese mainland(Ⅱ): The regional distribution of the beginning years of basically complete earthquake data［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,16(4): 423—432.
黄玮琼,时振梁,曹学锋.1989. b值统计中的影响因素及危险性分析中b值的选取［J］.地震学报,11(4): 351—361.
HUANG Wei-qiong,SHI Zhen-liang,CAO Xue-feng.1989.Factors influencing the estimation of b value and the selection of b value in hazard analysis［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,11(4): 351—361(in Chinese).
李延兴,杨国华,李智,等. 2003.中国大陆活动地块的运动与应变状态［J］.中国科学(D辑),33(增刊): 65—81.
LI Yan-xing,YANG Guo-hua,LI Zhi,et al.2003.Characteristics of velocity and strain field of active tectonic blocks in China mainland［J］.Science in China(Ser D),33(suppl): 65—81(in Chinese).
梁明剑,袁道阳,刘百篪,等.2008.兰州邻区活断层潜在地震最大震级及其危险性评估［J］.中国地震,24(4): 317—324.
LIANG Ming-jian,YUAN Dao-yang,LIU Bai-chi,et al.2008.Assessment of seismic risk and maximum magnitudes of potential earthquakes on active faults near Lanzhou city［J］.Earthquake Research in China,24(4): 317—324(in Chinese).
罗灼礼.1995.中国大陆原地重复强震的特征及其预测［J］.地震,5(1): 1—11.
LUO Zhuo-li.1995.The main characteristics and prediction for the earthquake recurrence［J］.Earthquake,5(1): 1—11(in Chinese).
彭艳菊,张力方,吕悦军,等.2011.中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较［J］.中国地震,27(4): 376—385.
PENG Yan-ju,ZHANG Li-fang,LV Yue-jun,et al.2011.Methods on the calculation of annual seismic activity rate in moderate strong seismicity region［J］.Earthquake Research in China,27(4): 376—385(in Chinese).
秦娟,蔡辉腾,李光,等.2012.重庆地区小地震目录完整性分析［J］.华南地震,32(1): 61—67.
QIN Juan,CAI Hui-teng,LI Guang,et al.2012.Catalogue completeness analysis of the small earthquakes in Chongqing district［J］.South China Journal of Seismology,32(1): 61—67(in Chinese).
沈得秀,周本刚.2006.华南地区中强地震重复特征初步分析［J］.震灾防御技术,2(3): 252—260.
SHEN De-xiu,ZHOU Ben-gang. 2006.Primary analysis on the recurring characteristics of moderate-strong earthquakes in South China［J］.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2(3): 252—260(in Chinese).
王华林,盖殿广,王纪强,等.2011.淄博市及其邻近地区活断层地震危险性评价［J］.震灾防御技术,6(3): 242—256.
WANG Hua-lin,GAI Dian-guang,WANG Ji-qiang. et al.2011.Seismic risk assessment of active faults in Zibo city and its adjacent area［J］.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,6(3): 242—256(in Chinese).
魏运浩,姚运生,王秋良.2011.基于空间平滑法的武汉城市圈地震危险性概率分析［J］.地震研究,34(3): 287—290.
WEI Yun-hao,YAO Yun-sheng,WANG Qiu-liang.2011.Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Wuhan metropolitan region based on spatial smoothing method［J］.Journal of Seismological Research,34(3): 287—290(in Chinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟,龙锋,等.2007.中国大陆东部中-弱活动断层潜在地震最大震级评估的震级-频度关系模型［J］.地震地质,29(2): 236—253.
WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei,LONG Feng,et al.2007.Frequency-magnitude relationship models for assessment of maximum magnitudes of potential earthquake on moderately and weakly active faults in eastern China mainland［J］.Seismology and Geology,29(2): 236—253(in Chinese).
胥广银,金严.1998.弱震和中等强度地震活动区地震活动性模型研究［A］.见: 中国地震区划学术讨论会论文集.北京: 地震出版社.43—49.
XU Guang-yin,JIN Yan. 1998.Research on seismicity models of moderately and weakly active regions［A］.In: Proceedings of China Academic Symposium on Seismic Zoning. Seismological Press,Beijing 43—49(in Chinese).
徐伟进,高孟潭.2012.空间光滑地震活动性模型中光滑函数的比较研究［J］.地震学报,34(2): 244—256.
XU Wei-jin,GAO Meng-tan. 2012.Comparison of the smoothing functions in the analysis of spatially smoothed seismicity［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,34(2): 244—256.
杨勇,高孟潭,史保平.2009.湖南地区分布式地震活动性模型在PSHA中的应用研究［J］.震灾防御技术,4(1): 91—102.
YANG Yong,GAO Meng-tan,SHI Bao-ping.2009.Application of distributed seismic modeling of Hunan area in seismic hazard assessment［J］.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,4(1): 91—102(in Chinese).
杨勇,史保平,孙亮.2008.基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型［J］.地震学报,30(2): 198—208.
YANG Yong,SHI Bao-ping,SUN Liang. 2008.Seismic hazard estimation based on the distributed seismicity in northern China［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,30(2): 198—208(in Chinese).
张力方,吕悦军,彭艳菊,等.2008.用空间光滑方法评估弱地震活动区的地震活动性参数［J］.震灾防御技术,3(1): 27—36.
ZHANG Li-fang,LV Yue-jun,PENG Yan-ju,et al.2008.Estimate of seismic parameters in low seismicity region by using spatially smoothing approach［J］.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,3(1): 27—36(in Chinese).
张力方,吕悦军,彭艳菊,等.2012.考虑地震构造背景的地震活动性参数光滑方法在地震危险性概率评价中的应用［J］.震灾防御技术,7(3): 261—273.
ZHANG Li-fang,LV Yue-jun,PENG Yan-ju,et al.2012.The method of spatially smoothed seismicity parameter with consideration of seismotectonic background and its application in seismic hazard estimation［J］.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,7(3): 261—273(in Chinese).
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块［J］.中国科学(D辑),33(增刊): 12—20.
ZHANG Pei-zhen,DENG Qi-dong,ZHANG Quo-min,et al. 2003.Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the continent of China［J］.Science in China(Ser D),33(suppl): 12—20(in Chinese).
中国地震局.2005.中国地震活动断层探测技术系统技术规程［M］.北京: 地震出版社.
China Earthquake Administration. 2005.Stipulation on Technical System for China Earthquake Active Faults Surveying［M］.Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
周庆,冉洪流,吴业彪,等.2009.广州市主要断层的危险性评价［J］.震灾防御技术,4(1): 58—68.
ZHOU Qing,RAN Hong-liu,WU Ye-biao,et al. 2009. Seismic hazard assessment of major faults in Guangzhou City［J］. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,4(1): 58—68(in Chinese).
朱金芳,黄宗林,徐锡伟,等.2005.福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价［J］.中国地震,21(1): 2—16.
ZHU Jin-fang,HUANG Zong-lin,XU Xi-wei,et al.2005.Active faults exploration and seismic hazard assessment in Fuzhou City［J］.Earthquake Research in China,21(1): 2—16(in Chinese).
Beauval C,Scotti O,Bonilla F.2006.The role of seismicity models in probabilistic seismic hazard estimation: Comparison of a zoning and a smoothing approach［J］.Geophys J Int,165: 584—595.
Cao T Q,Petersen M D,Reichle M S.1996.Seismic hazard estimate from background seismicity in southern California［J］.Bull Seism Soc of Amer,86(5): 1372—1381.
Donald L W,Kevin J C. 1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement［J］.Bull Seism Soc of Amer,84(4): 974—1002.
Frankel A.1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States［J］.Seismological Research Letters,66(4): 8—21.
Hiemer S,Jackson D D,Wang Q.2013.A stochastic forecast of California earthquakes based on fault slip and smoothed seismicity［J］.Bull Seism Soc Am,103(2A):799—810.
Kafka A L.2002.Statistical analysis of the hypothesis that seismicity delineates areas where future large earthquakes are likely to occur in the central and eastern United States［J］.Seism Res Lett,73(6): 990—1001.
Lapajne J,Motnikar B S,Zupancic P.2003.Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributed seismicity［J］.Bull Seism Soc of Amer,93(6): 2502—2515.
Lei X,Yu G,Ma S, et al. 2008. Earthquakes induced by water injection at～3km depth within the Rongchang gas field,Chongqing,China［J］.J Geophys Res,113: B10310.doi: 10.1029/2008JB005604.
Pelaez J A,Hamdache M,Lopez C C.2003.Seismic hazard in Northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity: Results for peak ground acceleration［J］.Tectonophysics,372: 105—119.
Woessner J,Wiemer S.2005.Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty［J］.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,95(2): 684—698.
Woo Gordon.1996.Kernel estimation methods for seismic hazard area source modeling［J］.BSSA,86(2): 353—362.
Zechar J D,Jordan T H.2010.Simple smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy［J］.Annals of Geophysics,53(3): 99—105.
入倉孝次郎,三宅弘恵.2000.M8クラスの大地震の断層パラメーター一断層長さ,幅,変位,面積と地震モーメントの関係？［R］.日本:京都大学防災研究所.

[1]	蒋锋云, 季灵运, 朱良玉, 刘传金. 联合GPS和InSAR研究海原-六盘山断裂现今的地壳变形特征[J]. 地震地质, 2023, 45(2): 377-400.
[2]	陈鲲, 高孟潭, 俞言祥, 徐伟进, 杜义, 李雪靖, 陆东华. 融合三维断层源和二维潜在震源区的随机抽样概率地震危险性分析算法研发[J]. 地震地质, 2023, 45(2): 435-454.
[3]	华俊, 龚文瑜, 单新建, 王振杰, 季灵运, 刘传金, 李永生. 多轨道InSAR震间形变速率场拼接方法[J]. 地震地质, 2022, 44(5): 1172-1189.
[4]	姜丛, 蒋长胜, 尹欣欣, 王蕊嘉, 翟鸿宇, 张延保, 来贵娟, 尹凤玲. 水力压裂诱发地震活动中的b值时空异质性及其应用[J]. 地震地质, 2022, 44(5): 1333-1349.
[5]	张国庆, 祝意青, 梁伟锋. 青藏高原东缘扶边河断裂周边地壳密度及垂向构造应力特征[J]. 地震地质, 2022, 44(3): 578-589.
[6]	刘瑞春, 张锦, 郭文峰, 陈慧, 郑亚迪, 成诚. 鄂尔多斯块体东南缘现今的变形特征与构造模式探讨[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(3): 540-558.
[7]	哈广浩, 任治坤, 刘金瑞, 李智敏, 李正芳, 闵伟, 周本刚. 青海都兰地区夏日哈活动断裂带的发现及其构造意义[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(3): 614-629.
[8]	王绍俊, 刘云华, 单新建, 屈春燕, 张国宏, 解朝娣, 赵德政, 范晓冉, 华俊, 梁诗明, 张克亮, 代成龙. 2021年云南漾濞M_S6.4地震同震地表形变与断层滑动分布[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(3): 692-705.
[9]	华俊, 赵德政, 单新建, 屈春燕, 张迎峰, 龚文瑜, 王振杰, 李成龙, 李彦川, 赵磊, 陈晗, 范晓冉, 王绍俊. 2021年青海玛多M_W7.3地震InSAR的同震形变场、断层滑动分布及其对周边区域的应力扰动[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(3): 677-691.
[10]	代成龙, 张玲, 梁诗明, 张克亮, 熊小慧, 甘卫军. 中亚塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂现今的走滑速率及其分段变化特征——基于GPS观测的深究[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(2): 263-279.
[11]	张迎峰, 单新建, 张国宏, 李成龙, 温少妍, 解全才. 2020年M_W6.0柯坪塔格地震的变形特征及其对周边地震危险性的启示[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(2): 377-393.
[12]	朱爽, 梁洪宝, 魏文薪, 李经纬. 天山地震带主要活动断层现今的滑动速率及其地震矩亏损[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(1): 249-261.
[13]	周鑫, 周庆, 高帅坡, 李晓峰. 重庆小南海滑坡原始地形恢复及滑坡体体积计算[J]. 地震地质, 2020, 42(4): 936-954.
[14]	李玉江, 石富强, 张辉, 魏文薪, 徐晶, 邵志刚. 川滇地区主要断裂带上的库仑应力变化及其对地震危险性的指示[J]. 地震地质, 2020, 42(2): 526-546.
[15]	田镇, 杨志强, 王师迪. 喜马拉雅东构造结主要断裂的地震矩亏损与危险性评估[J]. 地震地质, 2020, 42(1): 33-49.