北祁连山-河西走廊大震危险区预测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.04.011

地震地质 ›› 2011, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 865-876.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.04.011

北祁连山-河西走廊大震危险区预测

邵延秀^1,2,3, 袁道阳^1,2,3, 曹娜⁴, 梁明剑⁵

1. 中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 兰州 730000;
2. 中国地震局地震预测研究所兰州科技创新基地, 兰州 730000;
3. 兰州地球物理国家野外科学观测研究站, 兰州 730000;
4. 华中科技大学《水电能源科学》编辑部, 武汉 430074;
5. 四川省地震局, 成都 610041

收稿日期:2011-05-23 修回日期:2011-06-29 出版日期:2011-12-30 发布日期:2012-01-12
作者简介:邵延秀,男,1984年生,2007年毕业于兰州大学地质工程系,2010年在中国地震局兰州地震研究所获理学硕士学位,研究实习员,主要研究方向为新构造运动与地震危险性分析,电话: 0931-8273226,E-mail: shaoyx@geoidea.org。
基金资助:
中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务专项"祁连山-河西走廊主干活动断裂破裂分段与大震危险区预测"(2010A882)和国家自然科学基金(40872132)共同资助。

SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR NORTHERNQILIANSHAN-HEXI CORRIDOR

SHAO Yan-xiu^1,2,3, YUAN Dao-yang^1,2,3, CAO Na⁴, LIANG Ming-jian⁵

1. Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2. Lanzhou Base of Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Lanzhou 730000, China;
3. Lanzhou National Geophysical Observatory, Lanzhou 73000, China;
4. 《Water Resources and Power》 Editorial Department, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;
5. Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China

Received:2011-05-23 Revised:2011-06-29 Online:2011-12-30 Published:2012-01-12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以青藏块体北部的北祁连山-河西走廊地震构造带为研究对象,在系统收集整理该区主干活动断裂新活动性特征、断裂滑动速率、历史地震及古地震资料的基础上,结合现今地震活动性,采用地震空区、空段识别方法和地震活动b值空间图像扫描方法,分析了研究区内历史地震及b值的分布特征。结果显示,该区的榆木山北缘断裂离逝时间较长,应力积累程度较高,具有发生大震的构造条件,其未来大震危险性最高,值得高度关注。其次,该区的嘉峪关断裂也存在地震空段和低b值段,也应引起重视。

关键词: 北祁连山, 河西走廊, 活动断裂, b值, 地震空区, 榆木山北缘断裂, 嘉峪关断裂

Abstract:

In recent years,many big earthquakes(M≥7) struck China and other nations.These big earthquakes may indicate that the earth is in a globally seismic active period.Therefore,in order to mitigate future earthquake disasters,the assessment of future big earthquake risk for major active boundary faults has been done as an important approach for mitigation.In this paper,our focus area is Northern Qilianshan-Hexi Corridor locating in northeastern of Qinghai-Tibet plateau.We collected and summarized the active faults' data sets systematically,e.g.geometrical characteristic,slip rate,rupture segmentation,latest rupture event and paleo-earthqakes.And based on these data sets,we use the methods of seismic gap identification and b value mapping to analyze the characteristics of historical earthquakes and b value.And then,high risk zones or faults of big earthquakes were identified synthetically.We think the Northern Yumushan Fault has the most probability of generating big earthquake in the future.Because the elapse time from the last event is long and b value along it is remarkably low,which betokens high stress.Meanwhile, attention should be paid too to the Jiayuguan Fault,where seismic gap and low b value zone exist too.

Key words: Northern Qilianshan, Hexi Corridor, active fault, b value image, seismic gap, northern Yumushan Fault, Jiayuguan Fault

中图分类号:

P315.2

邵延秀, 袁道阳, 曹娜, 梁明剑. 北祁连山-河西走廊大震危险区预测[J]. 地震地质, 2011, 33(4): 865-876.

SHAO Yan-xiu, YUAN Dao-yang, CAO Na, LIANG Ming-jian. SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR NORTHERNQILIANSHAN-HEXI CORRIDOR[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2011, 33(4): 865-876.

参考文献

边庆凯,张培震,苏向洲.2001.榆木山北缘断裂的构造地貌特征与断层活动性［J］.华北地震科学,19(3): 41-49.
BIAN Qing-kai,ZHANG Pei-zhen,SU Xiang-zhou.2001.The tectonic topography feature of the faults in north Yumushan Mountain and its faulting activity［J］.North China Earthquake Sciences,19(3): 41-49(in Chinese).
曹娜,雷中生,袁道阳,等.2010a.公元180年甘肃表氏地震考［J］.地震学报,32(6): 744-753.
CAO Na,LEI Zhong-sheng,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2010a.Textual criticism on the Biaoshi,Gansu,earthquake in 180 A D［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,32(6): 744-753(in Chinese).
曹娜.2010b.1609年红崖堡7 1/4 级地震和180年表氏7 1/2 级地震考证研究［D］:[学位论文].兰州: 中国地震局兰州地震研究所.9-43.
CAO Na.2010b.Textural research on Hongyaobao M_S7 1/4 in 1609 A.D.and Biaoshi M_S 7 1/2 in 180 A.D. earthquakes［D］: M thesis. Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,CEA,Lanzhou.9-43(in Chinese).
陈柏林,刘建生,张永双,等.2005.玉门断裂全新世活动特征及其与玉门地震的关系［J］.地质评论,51(2): 138-142.
CHEN Bo-lin,LIU Jian-sheng,ZHANG Yong-shuang,et al.2005.Activity of Yumen Fault during the Holocene and its relation to the Yumen earthquake［J］.Geological Review,51(2): 138-142(in Chinese).
陈杰,卢演俦,丁国瑜.1998.祁连山西段酒西盆地区阶地构造变形的研究［J］.西北地震学报,20(1): 28-36.
CHEN Jie,LU Yan-chou,DING Guo-yu.1998.The latest Quaternary tectonic deformation of terraces of Jiuxi Basin in west Qilianshan Mountains［J］.Northwestern Seismological Journal,20(1): 28-36(in Chinese).
陈文彬,刘百篪,徐锡伟,等.1999.祁连山西段玉门断裂晚第四纪活动特征及相关问题的讨论［J］.西北地震学报,21(4): 389-394.
CHEN Wen-bin,LIU Bai-chi,XU Xi-wei,et al.1999.Activity of the Yumen Fault,western Qilian Mountains,during late Quaternary and its implication to regional tectonic movements［J］.Northwestern Seismological Journal,21(4): 389-394(in Chinese).
董治平.2007.一九五四年山丹地震断裂带［M］.兰州: 兰州大学出版社.81-94.
DONG Zhi-ping.2007.The Fault Zone of 1954 Shandan Earthquake［M］.Lanzhou University Publishing House,Lanzhou.81-94(in Chinese).
冯建刚,姚家骏,代炜.2010.青藏高原北部地区小震目录完整性分析［J］.高原地震,22(2): 10-15.
FENG Jian-gang,YAO Jia-jun,DAI Wei.2010.Analysis on minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs in the north region of Qinghai-Xizang plateau［J］.Plateau Earthquake Research,22(2): 10-15(in Chinese).
国家地震局地质研究所,国家地震局兰州地震研究所.1993.祁连山-河西走廊活动断裂系［M］.北京: 地震出版社.148-174.
Institute of Geology and Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,SSB. 1993.The Qilianshan-Hexi Corridor Active Fault System［M］.Seismological Press,Beijing.148-174(in Chinese).
何文贵,雷中生,袁道阳,等.2010a.1785年玉门惠回堡地震的震灾特点与发震构造［J］.西北地震学报,32(1): 47-53.
HE Wen-gui,LEI Zhong-sheng,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2010a.Disaster characteristics of Huihuipu earthquake in 1785 in Yumen,Gansu Province,and discussion on its seismogenic structure［J］.Northwestern Seismological Journal,32(1): 47-53(in Chinese).
何文贵,袁道阳,王爱国,等.2010b.嘉峪关断裂中段的新活动特征［J］.中国地震,26(3): 296-303.
HE Wen-gui,YUAN Dao-yang,WANG Ai-guo,et al.2010b.The activity characteristics in the central segment of Jiayuguan Fault［J］.Earthquake Research in China,26(3): 296-303(in Chinese).
何文贵,赵广堃,马尔曼,等.2004c.2002年甘肃玉门5.9级地震的地质背景研究［J］.地震研究,27(4): 363-368.
HE Wen-gui,ZHAO Guang-kun,MA Er-man,et al.2004c.Study on geological background of the Yumen M_S5.9 earthquake in Gansu in 2002［J］.Journal of Seismological Research,27(4): 363-368(in Chinese).
何文贵,郑文俊,赵广堃,等.2004a.2003年10月25日民乐-山丹6.1、5.8级地震烈度和发震构造特征［J］.西北地震学报,26(3): 240-245.
HE Wen-gui,ZHENG Wen-jun,ZHAO Guang-kun,et al.2004a.Characteristics of intensity and seismogenic structure of Minle-Shandan M_S 6.1and M_S 5.8 earthquakes on oct.25,2003［J］.Northwestern Seismological Journal,26(3): 240-245(in Chinese).
何文贵,郑文俊,赵广堃,等.2004b.2002年12月14日甘肃玉门5.9级地震的发震构造研究［J］.地震地质,26(4): 688-697.
HE Wen-gui,ZHENG Wen-jun,ZHAO Guang-kun,et al.2004b.Study on the seismogenic structure of the Yumen,Gansu Province M_S 5.9 earthquake of December 14,2002［J］.Seismology and Geology,26(4): 688-697(in Chinese).
金卿,何文贵,史志刚,等.2011.榆木山北缘断裂古地震特征研究［J］.地震地质,33(2):347-355.
JIN Qing,HE Wen-gui,SHI Zhi-gang,et al.2011.Palaeo-earthquake study on the northern Yumushan active fault［J］.Seismology and Geology,33(2):347-355(in Chinese).
刘建生,刘百篪,袁道阳.1994.肃南断裂晚第四纪活动特征及古地震初步研究［A］.见: 国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(3).北京: 地震出版社. 36-41.
LIU Jian-sheng,LIU Bai-chi,YUAN Dao-yang.1994.Preliminary study on late Quaternary movement and paleoseismicity along the Sunan Fault［A］.In: Institute of Geology,SSB(ed).Research on Active Faults in China(3).Seismological Press,Beijing.36-41(in Chinese).
罗浩,雷中生,何文贵,等.2010.1954年甘肃山丹7 1/4 级地震史料补遗［J］.震灾防御技术,5(2): 185-198.
LUO Hao,LEI Zhong-sheng,HE Wen-gui,et al.2010. An addendum of historical records of Shandan,Gansu Province M7 1/4 Earthquake in 1954［J］.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,5(2): 185-198(in Chinese).
闵伟,张培震,何文贵,等.2002.酒西盆地断层活动特征及古地震研究［J］.地震地质,24(1): 35-44(in Chinese).
MIN Wei,ZHANG Pei-zhen,HE Wen-gui,et al.2002.Research on the active faults and paleoearthquakes in the western Jiuquan Basin［J］.Seismology and Geology,24(1): 35-44(in Chinese).
邵延秀,袁道阳,王爱国,等.2011.西秦岭北缘断裂破裂分段与地震危险性评估［J］.地震地质,33(1): 79-90.
SHAO Yan-xiu,YUAN Dao-yang,WANG Ai-guo,et al.2011.The characteristic of segments and estimate of earthquake risk along the Western Qinling Fault zone［J］.Seismology and Geology,33(1): 79-90(in Chinese).
时振梁,环文林,谢原定.1982.河西走廊西部的活动断层与地震［A］.中国地震学会地震地质专业委员会编.中国活动断裂.北京: 地震出版社: 212-218.
SHI Zhen-liang,HUAN Wen-lin,XIE Yuan-ding.1982.Active faults and earthquakes in the western part of Hexi Corridor［A］.In: Committee on Seismogeology,The Seismological society of China(ed).Research on Active Faults in China.Seismological Press,Beijing.212-218(in Chinese).
易桂喜,范军,闻学泽.2005.由现今地震活动分析鲜水河断裂带中-南段活动习性与强震危险地段［J］.地震,25(1): 58-66.
YI Gui-xi,FAN Jun,WEN Xue-ze.2005.Study on faulting behavior and fault-segments for potential strong earthquake risk along the central-southern segment of Xianshuihe Fault zone based on current seismicity［J］.Earthquake,25(1): 58-66(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽.2007.多地震活动性参数在断裂带现今活动习性与地震危险性评价中的应用与问题［J］.地震地质,29(2): 254-271.
YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze.2007.The application and limitation of multiple seismicity parameters to assessing current faulting behavior and seismic potential of active fault zones［J］.Seismology and Geology,29(2): 254-271(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.2004a.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性［J］.地震学报,26(3): 294-303.
YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun,et al.2004a.Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe Fault zone from seismicity parameters［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(3): 294-303(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2004b.山西断陷带太原-临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究［J］.地震学报,26(4): 387-395.
YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei.2004b.Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system［J］.Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(4): 387-395(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.2006.由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性［J］.中国地震,22(2): 117-125.
YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,WANG Si-wei,et al.2006.Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of the Longmenshan-Minshan Fault zones from current seismicity parameters［J］.Earthquake Research in China,22(2): 117-125(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,苏有锦.2008.川滇活动地块东边界强震危险性研究［J］.地球物理学报,51(6): 1719-1725.
YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,SU You-jin.2008.Study on the potential strong-earthquake risk for the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan active faulted-block,China［J］.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,51(6): 1719-1725(in Chinese).
袁道阳,刘百篪.1998.甘青地区未来强震危险区的综合判定［J］.高原地震,10(3): 8-15.
YUAN Dao-yang,LIU Bai-chi.1998.The comprehensive prediction of the strong earthquake risk regions in the future in Gansu and Qinghai areas［J］.Plateau Earthquake Research,10(3): 8-15(in Chinese).
郑文俊.2009b.河西走廊及其邻区活动构造图像及构造变形模式［D］:[学位论文].北京: 中国地震局地质研究所.96-103.
ZHENG Wen-jun.2009b.Geometric pattern and active tectonics of the Hexi Corridor and its adjacent regions［D］. M thesis. Institute of Geology,CEA, Beijing.96-103(in Chinese).
郑文俊,何文贵,赵广堃,等.2005.2003年甘肃民乐-山丹6.1,5.8级地震发震构造及发震机制探讨［J］.地震研究,28(2): 133-140.
ZHENG Wen-jun,HE Wen-gui,ZHAO Guang-kun,et al.2005.Discussion on the causative structure and mechanism of the 2003 Minle-Shandan,Gansu,M6.1 and M5.8 earthquakes［J］.Journal of Seismological Research,28(2): 133-140(in Chinese).
郑文俊,张培震,袁道阳,等.2009a.甘肃高台合黎山南缘发现地震地表破裂带［J］.地震地质,31(2): 247-255.
ZHENG Wen-jun,ZHANG Pei-zhen,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2009a.Discovery of surface rupture zone on the south of Helishan in Gaotai,Gansu Province［J］.Seismology and Geology,31(2): 247-255(in Chinese).
Aki K.1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN=a-bM and its confidence limits［J］.Bull Earthq Res,43: 237-239.
Bender B.1983.Maximum likelihood estimation of b value for magnitude grouped data［J］.Bull Seismol Soc Am,73(3): 831-851.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1945.Seismicity of the earth［J］.GSA Bulletin,56(6): 603-667.
Hetzel R,Niedermann S,Tao M,et al.2002.Low slip rates and long-term preservation of geomorphic features in Central Asia［J］.Nature,417: 428-432.
Hetzel R,Tao M,Stokes S,et al.2004.Late Pleistocene/Holocene slip rate of the Zhangye thrust(Qilianshan,China)and implications for the active growth of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau［J］.Tectonics,23: TC6006.doi: 10.1029/2004TC001653.
Mogi K.1979.Two kinds of seismic gaps［J］.Purel Appl Geophys,117: 1172-1186.
Shi Y,Bolt B A.1982.The standard error of the magnitude frequency b-value［J］. Bull Seism Soc Am,72(5): 1677-1687.
Tapponnier P,Meyer B,Avouac J P,et al.1990.Active thrusting and folding in the Qilianshan and decoupling between upper crust and mantle in northeastern Tibet［J］.Earth Planet Sci Lett,97: 382-403.
Utsu T.1965.A method for determining the value of b in formula logN=a-bM showing the magnitude-frequency relation for earthquakes［J］.Geophys Bull,13: 99-103.
Wells D L,Kevin C J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement［J］.Bull Seism Soc Am,84(4): 974-1002.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2000.Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska,the Western United States,and Japan［J］.Bull Seismol Soc Am,90(4): 859-869.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2002.Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes［J］.Advances in Geophysics,45: 259-302.
Woessner J,Wiemer S.2005.Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty［J］.Bull Seismol Soc Am,95(2): 684-698.

[1]	徐志萍, 张扬, 杨利普, 徐顺强, 姜磊, 唐淋, 林吉焱. 河南省及邻区主要活动断裂的深部构造特征[J]. 地震地质, 2022, 44(6): 1521-1538.
[2]	易虎, 詹文欢, 闵伟, 吴晓川, 李健, 冯英辞, 任治坤. 小多道地震震源效果在海域活动断裂探测中的对比研究[J]. 地震地质, 2022, 44(2): 333-348.
[3]	李正芳, 李彦宝, 周本刚, 朱国军, 刘保金, 吴健. 北京平原大兴凸起东缘断裂全新世活动的新认识[J]. 地震地质, 2021, 43(6): 1671-1681.
[4]	詹慧丽, 张冬丽, 何骁慧, 沈旭章, 郑文俊, 李志刚. 基于地震活动特征的鄂尔多斯西缘现今构造变形模式的限定[J]. 地震地质, 2020, 42(2): 346-365.
[5]	哈广浩, 吴中海, 马凤山, 曾庆利, 张路青, 盖海龙. 藏北改则县别若则错活动断裂的发现及其地质意义[J]. 地震地质, 2019, 41(2): 436-446.
[6]	吴果, 周庆, 冉洪流. 震级-频度关系中b值的极大似然法估计及其影响因素分析[J]. 地震地质, 2019, 41(1): 21-43.
[7]	黄伟亮, 杨晓平, 李胜强, 杨海波. 焉耆盆地北缘断裂全新世滑动速率及地震危险性[J]. 地震地质, 2018, 40(1): 186-203.
[8]	刘睿, 李安, 张世民, 陈志丹, 郭长辉. 白杨河阶地揭示的北祁连山西段晚第四纪构造变形[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(6): 1237-1255.
[9]	陈干, 郑文俊, 王旭龙, 张培震, 熊建国, 俞晶星, 刘兴旺, 毕海芸, 刘金瑞, 艾明. 榆木山北缘断裂现今构造活动特征及其对青藏高原北东扩展的构造地貌响应[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(5): 871-888.
[10]	杨海波, 杨晓平, 黄雄南. 祁连山北缘断裂带中段晚第四纪活动速率初步研究[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(1): 20-42.
[11]	朱艾斓, 徐锡伟, 任烨, 孙冬军, 王鹏, 于海英, 宋秀青, 刘芳. 中国东南部地区背景地震重新定位及隐伏活动构造初步研究[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(1): 67-80.
[12]	王志铄, 王明亮, 赵显刚, 万娜, 马兴全, 于浩雨. 太康隆起南缘新郑-太康断裂的新生代活动形迹与地震活动[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(1): 117-129.
[13]	李西, 冉勇康, 陈立春, 王虎, 于江, 张彦琪, 谢英情. 红河断裂带南段全新世地震活动证据[J]. 地震地质, 2016, 38(3): 596-604.
[14]	张盛峰, 吴忠良, 房立华. 双差(DD)定位地震目录能用于地震序列的统计地震学参数计算吗？——云南鲁甸M_S6.5地震序列b值的空间分布[J]. 地震地质, 2014, 36(4): 1244-1259.
[15]	胡勐乾, 邓志辉, 陆远忠, 宋键, 路雨, 朱秀云, 孙锋. 三维数值模拟在华北地区现今构造变形分析中的应用[J]. 地震地质, 2014, 36(1): 148-165.

北祁连山-河西走廊大震危险区预测

SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR NORTHERNQILIANSHAN-HEXI CORRIDOR

PDF (PC)

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价