基于投入产出分析的汶川地震灾害间接经济损失评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2016.04.022

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

合理的灾害损失评估是开展救灾和恢复重建的基础。间接经济损失是科学评价灾害影响不可或缺的组成部分。文中以2008年汶川特大地震四川灾区为例，利用投入产出分析法，对汶川地震造成的部门产业关联间接经济损失进行了初步分析。结果表明，汶川地震在四川省导致的产业关联间接经济损失可达25 453.23亿元，是四川省直接经济损失的3倍。其中，工业、农业和建筑业部门的间接经济损失分别超过其部门直接经济损失的14.60、8.70和7.11倍。直接经济损失不足以全面衡量汶川地震造成的灾害影响，科学合理地评估灾害间接经济损失是系统地评价灾害影响的一个重要环节。

关键词: 汶川地震, 间接经济损失, 产业关联损失, 投入产出模型

Abstract:

The scientific and reasonable assessment of disaster loss is the basic work for disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction.Indirect economic loss is also an important part of scientific assessment for disaster influence.Taking the stricken area of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan as an example,this paper preliminarily analyzed the sections-related indirect economic loss resulting from Wenchuan earthquake by the methods of input-output analysis.The results show that,1) the sections-related indirect economic loss of Wenchuan earthquake reached up to 2 545.32 billion Yuan,which is as much as 3 times the direct economic loss in Sichuan Province.The direct economic loss does not evaluate the effects of Wenchuan earthquake disaster completely,and the indirect economic loss is an inseparable part for the systematic assessment of disaster influence.2) The characteristics of economic losses are not the same among different sectors in Sichuan.The indirect economic losses of industry and other services are the biggest in all sectors of Sichuan.However,the ratios of indirect and direct economic loss in industry,agriculture,construction are the highest,which is over 14.60,8.70 and 7.11,respectively.3) Although the uncertainty exists in the assessment result due to the limitation of input-output model,input-output analysis is still the most wildly used method to assess the indirect economic loss of natural hazard.Furthermore,the data accuracy is also an important factor influencing the economic loss assessment of natural hazard.

Key words: Wenchuan earthquake, indirect economic loss, sections-related loss, input-output model

中图分类号:

P315.9

魏本勇, 苏桂武. 基于投入产出分析的汶川地震灾害间接经济损失评估[J]. 地震地质, 2016, 38(4): 1082-1094.

WEI Ben-yong, SU Gui-wu. ASSESSMENT ON INDIRECT ECONOMIC LOSS OF WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER BASED ON INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2016, 38(4): 1082-1094.

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