从新疆地区主余震活动看地震静态应力触发模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.009

地震地质 ›› 2011, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 586-601.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.009

从新疆地区主余震活动看地震静态应力触发模型

姜辉¹, 邓志辉¹, 王海涛^2,3, 王琼³, 路星⁴

1. 中国地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029;
2. 中国地震局地震预测研究所兰州科技创新基地, 兰州 730000;
3. 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
4. 麦斯泰格北京工程技术发展有限公司, 北京 100089

收稿日期:2011-03-01 修回日期:2011-06-02 出版日期:2011-09-29 发布日期:2011-12-16
通讯作者: 邓志辉,研究员,电话: 010-62009089,E-mail: zhuihui@ies.ac.cn。
作者简介:姜辉,女,1983年出生,2009年毕业于中国地震局兰州地震研究所地球物理专业,获硕士学位,现于中国地震局地质研究所攻读博士学位,主要从事应力触发方面的研究,电话: 010-62009082,E-mail: jh 100511@163.com。
基金资助:
中国地震局地质研究所基本科研业务专项(2060302)、地震科学联合基金(A07096)和国家自然科学基金(40841016、40372131和40702056)共同资助。

STUDY OF STATIC STRESS TRIGGERING MODEL THROUGH THE ACTIVITIES OF MAIN-AND AFTERSHOCKS IN XINJIANG

JIANG Hui¹, DENG Zhi-hui¹, WANG Hai-tao^2,3, WANG Qiong³, LU Xing⁴

1. Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China;
2. Lanzhou Science and Technology Innovative Base of Institute of Earthquake Prediction, CEA,Lanzhou 730000,China;
3. Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,China;
4. SITECH Engineering Technology Development Co.|Ltd,Beijing 100089,China

Received:2011-03-01 Revised:2011-06-02 Online:2011-09-29 Published:2011-12-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取新疆地区1970年以来15次M_S 6.0以上地震作为源地震, M_S 4.0以上余震作为目标余震,对地震静态应力触发模型进行检验分析。结果表明,地震静态应力触发模型在新疆地区存在问题,80％的源地震发生后,其ΔCFS正区目标余震数量少于负区目标余震数量; 33％的源地震发生后,其正区目标余震数量远少于负区目标余震数量(前者不到后者的一半); 只有13.3％的源地震发生后,其正区目标余震数量远多于负区目标余震数量(前者是后者的2倍以上)。即使考虑源地震的震源深度、断层面走向、倾向和滑动角的不确定性因素,基本结果相同。在大多数震例中,发生在ΔCFS负区的目标余震数量多于发生在正区的目标余震数量,与地震静态应力触发模型不一致。作者进一步推论认为,基于应力、应变的增量变化进行地震短期预测是有局限性的。

关键词: 地震, 应力触发, 库仑应力, 余震, 新疆

Abstract:

We select 15 earthquakes with M_S≥6.0 in Xinjiang since 1970 as "source earthquakes",and aftershocks of M_S≥4.0 as target aftershocks.Test analysis has been done on the static stress triggering model.The results show that the static stress triggering model is not so applicable in the Xinjiang region.For 80％of source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is less than that in negative area; for 33％of source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is far less than that in negative area(the former is less than half of the latter); only for 13.3％of the source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is far more than that in negative area(the former is twice of the latter).Even the uncertainties are considered,e.g.the focal depth of the source earthquakes,the fault plane orientation and the slip angle,the results are basically the same.In most shock events,target earthquakes in negative ΔCFS area are more in number than that occurred in the positive area,which does not accord with static stress triggering model.The further inference is that the short-term earthquake prediction based on stress and strain increment changes is limited.

Key words: earthquake, stress triggering, Coulomb stress, aftershock, Xinjiang

中图分类号:

P315.72

姜辉, 邓志辉, 王海涛, 王琼, 路星. 从新疆地区主余震活动看地震静态应力触发模型[J]. 地震地质, 2011, 33(3): 586-601.

JIANG Hui, DENG Zhi-hui, WANG Hai-tao, WANG Qiong, LU Xing. STUDY OF STATIC STRESS TRIGGERING MODEL THROUGH THE ACTIVITIES OF MAIN-AND AFTERSHOCKS IN XINJIANG[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2011, 33(3): 586-601.

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从新疆地区主余震活动看地震静态应力触发模型

STUDY OF STATIC STRESS TRIGGERING MODEL THROUGH THE ACTIVITIES OF MAIN-AND AFTERSHOCKS IN XINJIANG

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