关键词: 震源模式, 汶川大地震, 地震预测

Abstract: The cause and prediction of great earthquake are very complicated.It is difficult to totally summarize them using one model.In the paper,we use four models to describe them,namely,the superposition model,the combination model,the stereographic cross model and the modulation model.Each of the four models plays a different role in describing the preparation and occurrence of an earthquake.The superposition model deals with the problem about the driving force of earthquake preparation.The combination model discusses the problem about the structure of earthquake source.The stereographic cross model discusses the problem of how the asperity on the fault plane in the seismic source forms.And the modulation model focuses on the problem about that external factors triggering instability in the source region and its vicinity during short and imminent term before an earthquake.The paper tries to make a retrospective prediction of the M_S 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 using the abovementioned models.

Key words: earthquake source model, great Wenchuan earthquake, earthquake prediction