太原盆地地壳形变特征及其反映的强震危险性

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2025.01.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文中根据地震地质和深部探测资料构建了太原盆地东、西2条边界断裂精细的三维几何模型, 并基于该几何模型构建了太原盆地的地块-断层运动学模型。模型约束主要来源于包含137个站点的GPS速度场及已有的区域构造研究结果。按照先验信息的特点, 设计了多个模拟方案, 反演太原盆地及其两侧块体的旋转矢量、盆地内部应变率和边界断裂长期滑动速率与闭锁系数分布。对比各方案的反演结果, 获得了对GPS观测拟合较好且符合已知区域应变主轴特征的最优模型。反演结果显示: 太原盆地水平主张应变优势方向为NW向, 垂直轴旋转呈顺时针方向; 太原盆地西侧和东侧块体在欧亚基准下向SEE差异运动, 且绕垂直轴的逆时针旋转差异显著; 太原盆地西边界交城断裂为正断兼右旋活动, 东边界太谷断裂为右旋兼正断活动。地块-断层运动学的特征表明, 太原盆地的地壳运动及变形受到了来自西边界拉张和东边界走滑剪切的共同作用, 导致盆地发生近NNE向右旋剪切和NW向拉张, 并作顺时针垂直轴旋转。模型结果还显示, 交城断裂和太谷断裂全段呈大面积高闭锁区, 综合已有的古地震研究结果, 文中研究表明交城断裂发生7.5级以上地震紧迫程度较高, 太谷断裂具备发生约6.7级强震的能量基础, 太原盆地附近发生强震的可能性需引起关注和进一步研究。

关键词: 太原盆地, 地块-断层运动学模型, 地壳变形, 闭锁程度, 地震危险性

Abstract:

The Taiyuan Basin(TB) is located at the middle part of the Shanxi Graben belt(SGB), which is the tectonic boundary between the Ordos active block in the West and the North China Plain in the East. The SGB comprises several echelon left-stepping depression basins lining up in NNE direction. Previous studies of active tectonics and crustal kinematics indicate that the present deformation of the SGB is controlled by the NNE dextral shear and NW extension between the blocks on both sides of it, but how the shear and extension are accommodated by basins remains in question. To answer the question, researchers in active tectonics have made more effort to investigate the slip type and rate of faults bounding basins. By contrast, inadequate attentions were paid to the kinematic characteristics of the internal deformation within basins. Recent studies on focal mechanisms find that not only normal slip earthquakes but also strike-slip earthquakes, which account for a major proportion of the whole seismicity, occur in the depression basins of the SGB.As can be seen, faulting with dominating normal slip on basin boundary faults cannot easily and reasonably explain how the SGB deforms at present. To comprehensively understand the present deformation mechanism of the SGB, further exploration is needed, which should be based on both the deformation characteristics of basin boundary faults and the kinematic characteristics of the relevant blocks including basins. Compared with other basins in the SGB, the TB has relatively simple features in tectonics, which an explicit kinematic model may describe. Therefore, the TB is potentially proper to demonstrate how basins deform in the SGB.

Developing typical tectonics like other basins of the SGB, the TB behaves oddly at the same time in terms of seismicity. Constituting the middle segment of a large-scale active block boundary and developing active faults reaching the middle and lower crust, this tectonic basis jointly imply the TB is eligible for the occurrence of large earthquakes. However, the historical record of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 7 is lacking in the TB.In contrast to that, several earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or even up to 8 have occurred in the last thousand years in the Xinding Basin and the Linfen Basin adjacent to the TB.So far, it is still uncertain how possible and how urgent a big earthquake could strike the TB in the future. To address this question, a thorough evaluation of the accumulation state of seismic energy on the boundary faults of TB is necessary.

Modeling the kinematics of block and fault with constraints from GPS velocity usually gives the spatial distributions of slip rate and locking ratio on faults, and also Euler rotation velocities and strain rates of blocks. However, due to the azimuthal heterogeneity and the sparsity in the distribution of GPS stations, the result of modeling block-fault kinematics sometimes concerns trade-offs between variables, and the optimal solution may be discrepant with the given tectonic knowledge. Furthermore, for the fault with a low dip angle, the overlap of surface strain due to faulting and that due to internal deformation of the hanging wall block could be large, which may aggravate the mentioned trade-off and discrepancy. As the block-fault kinematic model related to TB involves the above issues, appropriate conditions may be carefully selected to enhance the constraints of modeling.

In this study, a three-dimensional geometric model of two boundary faults of the TB is constructed based on the data from earthquake geology and deep exploration. A kinematic model of the blocks and the boundary faults relating to the TB is constructed based on the geometric model. According to previous studies on regional tectonics, this study attempted to obtain appropriate a priori information to provide better constraints on the modeling. Several strategies of modeling were designed based on the characteristics of a priori information. Constrained by a priori conditions, the GPS velocities at 137 sites from two data sources are simulated to get the fundamental kinematic features for the blocks and the boundary faults concerning the TB, which include the vertical axis rotation velocity and translational velocity at the centroid of the TB and the blocks in its neighbor, the distribution of locking ratio on the fault planes, and additionally the crustal strain rate within the basin. An apparent optimal model is obtained considering not only its fitting to the GPS velocities but also the good correlation between the observational features of principal axes of strain rate and that from the modeling. The results of the apparent optimal model show that the TB is spinning clockwise, and bearing the internal strain with principal axis orientating in NW.The blocks on the west side and the east side of the TB are both translating toward approximately SE under the stable Eurasian reference frame, but the east block TH is moving faster with more southward component relative to the west block LL.Furthermore, the LL and TH blocks are spinning counterclockwise. As the western boundary of the TB, the Jiaocheng fault is a normal fault with a right-lateral component. In contrast, the Taigu fault, which is on the eastern side of the basin, is a right-lateral fault with a normal component. According to the above features of the apparent optimal model, it is inferred that the combination of the tensional function across the western basin boundary and the strike-slip shearing along the eastern boundary contributes to the clockwise rotation of the TB and also causes the internal NNE dextral shear and NW extension within the basin. The model results also show extensive locking areas on the Jiaocheng fault and the Taigu fault. Taking into account of the relevent research on the recurrence of paleo-earthquakes since the late Pleistocene, the locking status of the fault indicates that the Jiaocheng fault is close to the occurrence of an earthquake greater than M7.5.In contrast, the Taigu fault has accumulated enough energy for an earthquake around M6.7, which appeals to attention and further studies on the possible occurrence of strong earthquakes in the vicinity of the TB.

Key words: Taiyuan Basin, model of block-fault kinematics, crustal deformation, locking ratio, seismic hazard

陈倩, 张竹琪. 太原盆地地壳形变特征及其反映的强震危险性[J]. 地震地质, 2025, 47(1): 189-213.

CHEN Qian, ZHANG Zhu-qi. CRUSTAL DEFORMATION CHARACTERISTICS AND RELEVANT SEISMIC HAZARD OF THE TAIYUAN BASIN[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2025, 47(1): 189-213.

图/表 13

图1 太原盆地及邻区主要断裂 F1交城断裂; F2太谷断裂; F3祁县断裂; F4田庄断裂; F5汾阳断裂; F6灵石隆起北缘断裂; F7汾阳断裂; F8绵山西侧断裂。虚线代表隐伏断裂: 红色为全新世断裂; 橙色为晚更新世断裂; 紫色为中更新世断裂; 灰色为第四纪前断裂(断裂信息来源于中国地震局地质研究所 ① )

Fig. 1 Main faults in Taiyuan Basin and its adjacent areas.

图2 太原盆地几何模型的设置 a 红线代表活动断裂, 断裂信息来源于文献(Deng et al., 2003; 邓起东等, 2007); b 交城断裂和太谷断裂深部展布的三维示意图

Fig. 2 Geometric setting of Taiyuan Basin model.

表1 断层等深线深度及各深度的倾角设置

Table1 Depth of contour and dip angle versus depth on faults

断层	深度/km	0	5	10	15	20	22	24
交城断裂	倾角/(°)	80	56	39	27	17	15	15
太谷断裂	倾角/(°)	80					无参数		无参数

图3 鄂尔多斯活动地块及其周缘(a)和太原盆地附近(b)的GPS水平速度场(相对于稳定的欧亚基准) 图a中, 黑色粗线为一级活动地块边界, 灰色粗线为二级活动地块边界, 红色虚线内GPS速度用于计算鄂尔多斯地块与太行山块体旋转矢量, 红框为研究区及其周缘; 图b中的红色实线为断层线

Fig. 3 GPS horizontal velocity field near Ordos active block and its surrounding areas(a) and Taiyuan Basin surrounding areas(b) (Relative to Eurasian reference).

表2 GPS速度场数据来源、用途、数量以及观测时间区间

Table2 GPS velocity field data source, usage, quantity, and observation time period

数据来源	用途	数量	观测时间	误差缩放因数
Wang et al., 2020	地块-断层运动学模拟	25	1999—2016年	1.7
	鄂尔多斯地块旋转矢量	5
	太行山微块体旋转矢量	25
Hao et al., 2021	地块-断层运动学模拟	10	2005—2019年	2.0
	鄂尔多斯地块旋转矢量	32
	太行山微块体旋转矢量	40

表3 模拟方案

Table3 Modeling designs

方案编号	先验约束				模型自由度
	交城断裂两盘相对滑移参数		太谷断裂两盘相对滑移参数
	角度/(°)	速率/mm·a^-1	角度/(°)	速率/mm·a^-1
N1					1
N2					32
A1	R:-180~-90				56
A2			R:-180—-90		40
A3	R:-180~-90		R:-180—-90		96
A4	H:120~150				56
S1		0~1.0			56
S2				0~0.5	40
S3		0~1.0		0~0.5	96
M1	R:-180~-90			0~0.5	96
M2		0~1.0	R:-180~-90		96

图4 模拟得到的太原盆地最小主应变轴方位(a)、主应变分量大小(b)、垂直轴旋转速率(c)、平移方位(d)及平移速率(e) NRMS为模型拟合GPS数据的归一化均方差; 最小主应变轴方位为该轴与正N向的顺时针夹角, 应变率负值表示缩短, 正值表示拉张; 垂直轴旋转速率反映块体的自旋快慢, 负角速率对应顺时针旋转

Fig. 4 Modeling results of the azimuth of the minimum principal strain rate axis(a), the maximum and minimum principal strain rates(b), the vertical axis rotation rate(c), the azimuth of translation(d) and the translation rate of the Taiyuan Basin(e).

图5 交城断裂和太谷断裂断层面上长期滑移速率统计分布各分图的上下半图分别展示交城断裂和太谷断裂的统计结果; 蓝色和浅橙色直方块分别代表右旋和正断分量, 黑色空心直方块代表总速率, 当横坐标为负值时分别表示左旋和逆断速率, 图中间竖线表示右旋与左旋、正断和逆断的分界; 浅橙色直方块底色设为透明, 与蓝色方块重叠部分显示为酱紫色; 图中字符组合对应模拟方案编号(表3)及断裂代码: JCF 交城断裂, TGF 太谷断裂, 下文同

Fig. 5 Statistical distribution of long-term slip rates on the Jiaocheng fault and the Taigu fault.

图6 各模拟方案对应的交城断裂(a)和太谷断裂(b)的闭锁规模图中蓝色菱形-折线和红色圆圈-折线对应闭锁系数≥0.9的断层面区域底部的平均深度和区域面积占比, 青蓝色误差棒展示区域底部深度的最大值和最小值; 黄色圆圈与折线为闭锁系数≥0.5的区域的面积占比

Fig. 6 Dimensions of fault locking nodes on the Jiaocheng fault(a) and the Taigu fault(b).

图7 太原盆地微块体运动学最优模型的模拟结果 a、b EW向和SN向的速度场拟合残差统计分布; c 观测速度、模拟速度和速度残差空间分布, 黄色线段和黑色线段分别展示断层和块体边界在地表的展布; d 微地块的平移速率、垂直轴旋转速率及盆地内部主应变率, 扇形向右和向左展开分别表示顺时针和逆时针旋转

Fig. 7 Modeling results of the apparent optimal kinematic model for the micro-blocks around the Taiyuan Basin.

图8 模拟所得长期滑移速率沿断层面的分布当水平和倾向的速率为负值时, 分别表示左旋和逆断

Fig. 8 Model based long-term slip rates on the Jiaocheng fault and the Taigu fault.

图9 断层上的闭锁系数(a, c)和滑动速率亏损分布(b, d), 以及闭锁面积(e)和标量地震矩累积速率与闭锁阈值对应关系(f) 图f中各符号处的竖线表示2倍误差大小

Fig. 9 Distributions of locking ratio(a, c)and slip rate deficit on the faults(b, d), as well as locking area(e)and accumulation rate of scalar seismic moment versus the threshold of locking status(f).

图10 交城断裂(a)和太谷断裂(b)上不同闭锁阈值对应的潜在最大特征地震复发周期和震级图中蓝色实线和红色实线分别表示计算得到的最大特征地震震级和复发周期, 浅蓝色和浅红色阴影分别表示相应的误差范围; 黑色斜线阴影标示古地震研究揭示的前后相邻的地震时间间隔范围(谢新生等, 2007; 荆振杰等, 2016)

Fig. 10 Recurrence period and magnitude of potential characteristic earthquake corresponding to different thresholds of locking status on the Jiaocheng Fault(a)and the Taigu Fault(b).

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